Michael

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  • micci_manmicci_man Somewhere in FLPosts: 13,623 AG
    edited October 2018 #32
    I sure hope this isn't right..... Wednesday at 9p

    https://www.ventusky.com/?p=30.00;-84.95;7&l=gust&t=20181011/01 
    Common Sense can't be bought, taught or gifted, yet it is one of the few things in life that is free, and most refuse to even attempt to possess it. - Miguel Cervantes
  • trout069trout069 Posts: 4,898 Captain
    The professionals(fuswman)ain’t calling it yet, but right now looks like penny cola mobile the landing place. About midnight is when the true path will show. 
  • micci_manmicci_man Somewhere in FLPosts: 13,623 AG
    I'll take that landfall over the one on Ventusky!
    Common Sense can't be bought, taught or gifted, yet it is one of the few things in life that is free, and most refuse to even attempt to possess it. - Miguel Cervantes
  • micci_manmicci_man Somewhere in FLPosts: 13,623 AG
    Just talked to someone in the know. It's election year. The city of Tallahassee has outsourced electric help on stand by to assist. The county doesn't anyone committed to assist  yet..... this could be interesting.
    Common Sense can't be bought, taught or gifted, yet it is one of the few things in life that is free, and most refuse to even attempt to possess it. - Miguel Cervantes
  • IndianLagoonIndianLagoon Posts: 1,855 Captain
    I just got back from IP yesterday and have been busy with work stuff related to Michael.

    This is a really bad situation for most of us.  Potentially far worse than Kate and that seems to be the worst storm in the past 40 years to hit the region.  It was a Cat 2. That storm knocked out highway 98, the SGI and Gorrie Bridges, pummeled Tallahassee with wind and tornadoes and reshaped all of the beaches.

    I was a bit unnerved by the lack of concern from locals who dismissed it and were planning on staying put.  I'm afraid we may very well lose folks to an unprecedented storm surge.  The area has not seen a storm like this in my lifetime and I'm worried too many folks are using past experiences with tropical storms and Category 1 storms as evidence they can weather the storm in place.  The persistent easterlies the region has had over the last week have the water really pushed up into Apalachicola Bay and especially over to Indian Pass.  Current models suggest that most of Indian Pass, if not all, will be underwater. I can only trust that my 100+ year old house will laugh at Michael, but I'm not too confident.

    I'm expecting Cape San Blas to be cut off at the Stump Hole and much of 98 to be compromised.  Major damage and destruction for any gulf front structures. 


  • LiveLineLiveLine Wakulla County, FloridaPosts: 1,834 Captain
    Cat 4 now....this is going to be a nightmare come true
  • fsuwxmanfsuwxman Posts: 1,285 Officer
    I preface my following thoughts with the fact that you should ALWAYS base your decision(s) on official sources such as local/state emergency management and government weather entities such as the NHC. Ok...here goes...

    This is the “big one” for the forgotten coast. The one that has been modeled for years as a worst case scenario. The one I personally never thought I’d see in my lifetime. The one that many in the met community feared. This is the forgotten coast’s “Andrew”. I don’t say this to shock - I truly believe it will be the defining storm of this area. It will most likely go down as the worst tropical cyclone to hit this part of the coast in recorded history. 

    My estimation puts landfall between IP/MB and Little St. George. Most likely spot, in my opinion, is CSB. This is predicated on the trough to the west continuing to dig at current pace. If it slows up even a bit PCB is likely. If the trough speeds up even slightly LSGI comes in to play. 

    Would not be shocked to see max sustained winds immediately prior to landfall up to 140 based on pressure fall rates over the last 12-18 hours. It may even join the 930-935 mb club. Not many storms in history make that cut. 

    Goes without saying that trees of all sizes will be down in large numbers. 

    The greatest threat along the immediate coastline is surge. We “think” we know what the surge will do based on our understanding of the shelf, previous storm impacts, tides, etc. I tend to believe it will be worse than predicted as we haven’t seen an event of this magnitude in the area in recorded history. That said - I would not be shocked if surge from St. Marks to LSGI is between 10-14 ft with some very localized 14-16 ft surge. Add wave action on top. 

    Likely impacts to Alligator Point - dirt road completely washed away, significant to catastrophic (total) loss of many structures. Would not be shocked if an inlet gets cut near the west end (near the marina) or even further up near the VFD station. 

    Likely impacts to St. Marks - I’d be surprised if any structure last are left substantially standing outside of the main building tab Shields. It’s likely high enough to survive. Wouldn’t be shocked if the lighthouse took significant damage or even came down due to surge weakening it. 

    Apalachicola and Carrabelle are tougher to predict impact wise due to interaction of the bay and outer lying barrier islands. Significant surge to be sure and likely significant roof damage to the older homes in the area. 

    SGI - effects likely similar to AP. 

    Panacea - not looking promising - period. Same goes for St. Teresa beach. 

    Tallahassee - likely significant canopy destruction. Think about all the rain we’ve had this spring/summer. Ground is soft and the trees that don’t uproot will drop signicant limbs and pines will do their thing (snap like a toothpick). If you have large trees overhanging your home, or that could hit your home by snapping or uprooting, I’d say your chances are >40% you’ll see roof damage from this storm. Plan to be self sufficient for up to 2-3 weeks unless you live along a critical infrastructure cooridor such as the immediate areas around TMH, CRMC, TLH, etc. I imagine they’ll have to power down Purdom at some point tomorrow (Wed) ahead of the surge at St. Marks. That would take a significant amount of available energy offline. 

    I’d be surprised if we didn’t see at least 100 mph gust(s) reported at TLH. I wouldn’t be shocked if gusts hit 110 mph. 

    Sustained winds likely in the 65-90 mph range. W/NW/N sides of Talahassee will catch the worst of it. Plan for Cat 2 wind damage throughout much of the city. 

    All that said - I took my own advice and got out of dodge. I headed west earlier today and won’t return until I have positive news re: road conditions and utilities. This is the first time I have ever evacuated for a storm which should tell you something. If a meteorologist is leaving - pack up and follow. I encouraged everyone I knew to evacuate. Unfortunately, the attitude throughout most of town was “it won’t be that bad”. I wish those folks good luck - it’s going to be a tough slog for most. I’m afraid we’ll lose some people to trees in to houses. 

    For anyone planning to ride it out along exposed/immediate coastline - do authorities a favor - fill out a toe tag and put it on. It’ll save everyone a lot of time post-storm. 

    As always - hope for the best but plan for the worst. I hope everything I’ve written doesn’t come true. I truly do. Hope is not a strategy, though, and reality can really suck as we all know. 

    I wish everyone the best wherever you are. 
    2015 FS Northwest Forum NASCAR Champion
  • LiveLineLiveLine Wakulla County, FloridaPosts: 1,834 Captain
    Thank you FSUWXMAN......same things I've been hearing from the EOC, and others following.  

    Prayers for all.  Please watch out for my crews and the contracted crews.  Their jobs will be hard enough to open up roads without having to worry about being run over.  
  • fsuwxmanfsuwxman Posts: 1,285 Officer
    The trough has slowed ever so slightly. Little SGI landfall is now out of the equation. Looking like Tyndall AFB to Crooked Island most likely landfall point. 

    This should keep the eastern eyewall from scraping the western most reaches of Tallahassee. Blountstown, Chattahooche, and Bainbridge are going to see unfathomable damage. Quincy may catch a piece of the eyewall as well. 

    It's now official...this will go down in the top 10 strongest landfalling  hurricanes in US recorded history by central pressure. Pressure down to 933 mb...that's a heck of a club to be in; one you don't want to be.
    2015 FS Northwest Forum NASCAR Champion
  • LiveLineLiveLine Wakulla County, FloridaPosts: 1,834 Captain
    praying for more westward shift....

    And thanks again for your insight
  • BodineBodine Posts: 2,985 Captain
    Hanging in Pensacola, stay safe
    F the feds
  • avmechavmech Posts: 1,362 Officer
    All you guys stay safe
    Joined: Oct 7 2002
    Member #10822
  • OldgoldandwhiteOldgoldandwhite Posts: 252 Deckhand
    I looked on the Weather channel app an hour ago and the projected winds for mid to south GA are going to be higher than The Apalachicola/ East Point area. I know that can’t be correct, can it?
  • IndianLagoonIndianLagoon Posts: 1,855 Captain
    All my fishing gear is at the beach house  :open_mouth:.  My wife said, it's ok, you can replace it.  You said you didn't spend much on it anyway.  :s
  • stc1993stc1993 Albany, GA Carrabelle, FLPosts: 6,330 Admiral
    edited October 2018 #46
    My weather map shows 80 mph wind in Albany GA @ 8:00 tonight with 110 mph gusts possible.  I hope they are wrong we have 7-8 huge pine trees all around us.

    Might leave if I can find a decent motel room.
  • CyclistCyclist Posts: 23,346 AG
    edited October 2018 #47
    Coastal flood monitoring gages in the big bend and panhandle. There at many more locations at the link. So far, Apalachicola is the highest.





  • Nick NikonNick Nikon Posts: 2,536 Captain
    This was just pulled off CNN website.

    The images didn't transfer.

    Storm surge tops Highway 98 seawall in Gulf County

    Coastal flooding has begun in Florida's Gulf County. The Florida Department of Transportation posted video of storm surge topping a seawall on Highway 98 in Gulf County.

    58 min ago

    Storm surge comes onto Highway 98 in Franklin County

    Storm surge has made it's way onto Highway 98 in Franklin County, where seaweed appears to be lining the road.

    If you live nearby, safe to say you should stay off the roads.


  • ferris1248ferris1248 Posts: 4,996 Moderator
    Intracoastal Waterway at White City Gulf County


    ." why would someone want to be a moderator in the first place?"

    "There is no compensation for that task other than the satisfaction one might get from being an ***."

    mindyabizness

    "What fools can not control, they will attempt to destroy."

    RJG

    "That which is hateful to you, do not do to your fellow. That is the whole of the law. The rest is commentary."

    Rabbi Hillel (c20 BCE)

  • Spanky DunlapSpanky Dunlap Posts: 692 Officer
    I hate this for everyone in the coastal communities. Times have been tough for them and now this. 



  • OldgoldandwhiteOldgoldandwhite Posts: 252 Deckhand
    Prayers for all!
  • SpineymanSpineyman Destin, FlPosts: 8,191 Admiral

    150 mph now!

    455
    WTNT64 KNHC 101528
    TCUAT4

    Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
    1030 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

    ...MICHAEL STILL STRENGTHENING AS THE EYE NEARS THE COAST OF
    THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

    Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
    that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph
    (240 km/h) with higher gusts. The aircraft also reported that the
    minimum pressure has fallen to 923 mb (27.26 inches).

    The Apalachicola airport recently reported a wind gust of 72 mph
    (101 km/h).

    Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida
    Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
    Apalachicola recently reported over 5 feet of inundation above
    ground level.

    SUMMARY OF 1030 AM CDT...1530 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...29.5N 85.9W
    ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
    ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES


    Kayak Rookie...and loving it.
    Fishing beautiful Destin / Ft Walton Beach area!

    II Chronicles 7:14
    if My people who are called by My name will humble themselves, and pray and seek My face, and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin and heal their land.



  • CyclistCyclist Posts: 23,346 AG
    edited October 2018 #53
    Man, I feel for you guys....hoping for the best! Hunker down!


    Currently at Hurricane Andrew strength.
  • fsuwxmanfsuwxman Posts: 1,285 Officer
    Now expecting an official designation as a cat 5 in the next 3 hours.
    2015 FS Northwest Forum NASCAR Champion
  • amada8amada8 Posts: 814 Officer
    Good luck everyone.  Looks to get really bad for y'all.  STAY SAFE....get outta Dodge!
  • SpineymanSpineyman Destin, FlPosts: 8,191 Admiral
    edited October 2018 #56
    amada8 said:
    Good luck everyone.  Looks to get really bad for y'all.  STAY SAFE....get outta Dodge!
    Too late to get out of dodge. The roads are all locked down now, so hunker down and get high and to the interior. Stay safe!
    Kayak Rookie...and loving it.
    Fishing beautiful Destin / Ft Walton Beach area!

    II Chronicles 7:14
    if My people who are called by My name will humble themselves, and pray and seek My face, and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin and heal their land.



  • micci_manmicci_man Somewhere in FLPosts: 13,623 AG
    Water is a good bit North of Mad Anthony's in Panacea. Just saw it on Channel 6 news. Lots more water to come. 
    Common Sense can't be bought, taught or gifted, yet it is one of the few things in life that is free, and most refuse to even attempt to possess it. - Miguel Cervantes
  • micci_manmicci_man Somewhere in FLPosts: 13,623 AG
    already over 2k without power in the city of Tallahassee. 
    Common Sense can't be bought, taught or gifted, yet it is one of the few things in life that is free, and most refuse to even attempt to possess it. - Miguel Cervantes
  • CyclistCyclist Posts: 23,346 AG
    Starting to ramp up now.
  • micci_manmicci_man Somewhere in FLPosts: 13,623 AG
    We just lost power.....But Bottomtime is a smart man. The whole house generator kicked in and we are running like normal. 

    I must mention he is also on his way to North Dakota on a 4 day duck hunt..... Lucky man!!
    Common Sense can't be bought, taught or gifted, yet it is one of the few things in life that is free, and most refuse to even attempt to possess it. - Miguel Cervantes
  • SpineymanSpineyman Destin, FlPosts: 8,191 Admiral
    micci_man said:
    We just lost power.....But Bottomtime is a smart man. The whole house generator kicked in and we are running like normal. 

    I must mention he is also on his way to North Dakota on a 4 day duck hunt..... Lucky man!!
    Lucky man nah, smart is more like it!
    Kayak Rookie...and loving it.
    Fishing beautiful Destin / Ft Walton Beach area!

    II Chronicles 7:14
    if My people who are called by My name will humble themselves, and pray and seek My face, and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin and heal their land.



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