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Hilton's Loop Current Analysis

Tom HiltonTom Hilton Posts: 1,585 Captain
In the thirteen years since we launched Hilton's Realtime-Navigator, I have never witnessed an event as I am currently seeing in the Gulf of Mexico; The driving force for most all the surface currents on the Gulf of Mexico, the Loop Current, is practically non-existent this year.

What implications this even may have on the upcoming fishing season is unknown.

Below is a brief synopsis from March 28, 2013 to March 28, 2017 of how the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current and its resultant production of upwelling cyclones and downwelling warm core eddies affect Gulf-wide fishing conditions.

Thomas J. Hilton

2013
Here you can see the Loop Current 4 years ago today in its predictable pattern of entering the Gulf between the Yucatan Penninsula and Cuba, reaching for the Mississippi Delta then turning eastward, then south exiting the Gulf between the Florida Keys and Cuba. A by product of the Loop Current are the counter-clockwise upwelling cyclones and clockwise rotating, downwelling warm core eddies. In 2013, the Loop Current extended it reach as far north as 28 degrees/30 minutes N.

2014
Here you can see the Loop Current 3 years ago today where it was about 75 NM south of the 2013 position (27 degrees/15 minutes N). Not so great for the Venice, LA fishermen, but really good for the Venice, FL fishermen!

2015
Here you can see the Loop Current 2 years ago today where the Loop Current had swung waaaay westward, barreling through Green Canyon and creating one of the most intense cyclones I have ever seen out at the FPSO Turitella area. I like to see good current, but this almost too much current. In 2015, the Loop Current extended northward to 28 deg./15 min. N and westward to 90 deg./45 min. W!

2016

Here you can see the Loop Current 1 year ago today where it had retreated back to a more normal position where it remained constant for many months. So did the counter-clockwise rotating cyclone just north of the Loop Current. This cyclone fed beautiful, nutrient-rich water washing into the outer oil structures such as Independence Hub, Blind Faith, and the drillship Deepwater Proteus for months, creating superb fishing conditions for extra large tuna and marlin. The Loop Current's position relative to the fishing grounds between Venice, LA and Cape San Blas FL is one large reason (in my opinion) this area is such a world-class fishery.

2017

Here you can see the Loop Current today - oh wait! Where is it? You can barely see it on the lower right corner of the image - it's only reaching northward to 25 deg./30 min. N. That's a full 180 nautical miles south of its northernmost position in this series from where it was in 2013. The entire region looks devoid of any meaningful currents, at least within fishing range. Fishermen know that they need current in order for the fish to feed - it will be interesting to see how this year's fishing season plays out with this wild card being thrown at us by Mother Nature!

Keeping an eye on areas where there is decent current may be key to your fishing success this year. Contact me if you have any questions or issues using the service or nav app.

7-1-3-5-3-0-2-2-6-7
email: hilton (at) rt-nav.com
http://www.RT-Nav.com

Good fishing!
Tom Hilton

Replies

  • dragon baitdragon bait Posts: 9,260 Admiral
    PING Professor O
  • Reel TealReel Teal Posts: 3,962 Captain
    What happened in 2015? Looks like an anomaly there too

    Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
  • dragon baitdragon bait Posts: 9,260 Admiral
    Seriously
    PING professor O
    Or Mitch Roffer if you really want to know what is going on
    https://www.roffs.com/
  • drgibbydrgibby Posts: 1,577 Captain
    Might just be saving some fuel this summer......................
    Let`s hope it chances.
  • Reel TealReel Teal Posts: 3,962 Captain
    Seriously
    PING professor O
    Or Mitch Roffer if you really want to know what is going on
    https://www.roffs.com/
    Figured Tom wanted to discuss since he posted on the forum....and people wonder why we hate spam on this site.

    Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
  • Grady-ladyGrady-lady east of the river, west of the woodsPosts: 5,282 Admiral
    Tom Hilton wrote: »

    I posted up something that should be of interest to all offshore fishermen. In the first 4 years of the analysis, the Loop Current certainly moved around a lot and this year is no different except it is so far south. I would expect for it to move northward to reclaim its more traditional position in due time, although I doubt it will happen by summer.

    I'm interested - though I don't understand exactly how currents are driven. Water temps, surface winds, topography, earths rotation? Are they like rivers in the ocean, somewhat like the jet stream in the atmosphere? The loop current eventually becomes, or merges into, the gulf stream, is that right?

    Where does it originate/diverge?...have you observed any notable changes in that area?

    (Sometimes it's prudent to deprive misbehaving children of what they most desire - attention.) :grin
    I find my peace out on the sand...Beside the sea, not beyond or behind. R.A. Britt

  • Soda PopinskiSoda Popinski GrovelandPosts: 13,570 AG
    I wonder what that will do for the LA fishery off those oil rigs. seems like a pretty interesting thing to follow, even though i don't get offshore. But hope to someday. I imagine that will affect seasonal migrations of fish as well, looks like the loop has an effect on temperatures.
    Like is like a Helicopter.  I do not know how to operate a Helicopter  
  • dragon baitdragon bait Posts: 9,260 Admiral
    Reel Teal wrote: »
    Figured Tom wanted to discuss since he posted on the forum....and people wonder why we hate spam on this site.

    Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

    Why not discuss it with the pros, unless this is just click bait
    You can find Professor O on the SE section, He specialty is Data analysis and assimilation techniques, mesoscale ocean dynamics, Lagrangian ocean descriptions
    Unless of course you hold a PHD in fluid mechanics and teach at RSMAS
    http://rsmas.miami.edu/
  • Reel TealReel Teal Posts: 3,962 Captain
    Why not discuss it with the pros, unless this is just click bait
    You can find Professor O on the SE section, He specialty is Data analysis and assimilation techniques, mesoscale ocean dynamics, Lagrangian ocean descriptions
    Unless of course you hold a PHD in fluid mechanics and teach at RSMAS
    http://rsmas.miami.edu/

    Sorry draggin ***... didn't know who "Professor O" was, but I'll listen to his opinion as well if he cares to offer it.

    So I can't ask the OP a question on his post unless I have a PhD because I am not worthy to ask such questions and did not know all the people on the forum who hold doctorates in fluid dynamics?



    Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
  • cprcpr Posts: 9,309 Admiral
    Is this something like La nina and El nino?
    "The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function." F. Scott Fitzgerald

    "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." Niels Bohr
  • dragon baitdragon bait Posts: 9,260 Admiral
    Reel Teal wrote: »
    Sorry draggin ***... didn't know who "Professor O" was, but I'll listen to his opinion as well if he cares to offer it.

    So I can't ask the OP a question on his post unless I have a PhD because I am not worthy to ask such questions and did not know all the people on the forum who hold doctorates in fluid dynamics?



    Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

    I think you might of misunderstood what I was implying, had the op wanted to discuss it why not discuss it with a professional?
    What could most on this site add that is relevant to the topic

    unless it is click bait
    see post 3
  • Tom HiltonTom Hilton Posts: 1,585 Captain
    I think you might of misunderstood what I was implying, had the op wanted to discuss it why not discuss it with a professional?
    What could most on this site add that is relevant to the topic

    unless it is click bait
    see post 3

    Great question. What could fishermen possibly discuss on a fishing forum when it comes to currents and how it relates to fishing?
  • drgibbydrgibby Posts: 1,577 Captain
    Baccala wrote: »
    No hate just letting you show off the clown that you are. If it's not about Tarpon,boca grande snagging or some other inshore BS that you love so much to give way more than your two cents then I guess it's spam. Well you see pal I've been useing Roffs, Hiltons and a few others for close to 25 years for not only fishing tournaments like the Mid
    Amen!
    Thanks for the info Mr. Hilton. Those of us that do fish 100 + miles offshore on a regular basis appreciate any and all intel we can get. Please don`t be put off by the folks on this forum that seem to have an over active opti-rectal nerve.
  • BaccalaBaccala Posts: 198 Deckhand
  • cprcpr Posts: 9,309 Admiral
    My question must have been lost in the bickering.

    Is this something like La nina and El nino?

    Also, are there any similar studies that have tracked the loop for a longer period?
    "The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function." F. Scott Fitzgerald

    "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." Niels Bohr
  • BaccalaBaccala Posts: 198 Deckhand
    Like Flies on ****
  • FinfinderFinfinder Posts: 9,999 Admiral
    Tarponator wrote: »
    You don't know me nearly as well as you think you do. I haven't fished in BGP or anywhere down there for five years. But this thread isn't about me, as much as you apparently would like it to be.

    Tom could have posted his "very good observation" many ways. He chose to do it on this forum -- and others -- in a way that can be quite accurately described as spam, and I'm sorry if I hurt your feelings for calling it what it is.

    The truth hurts sometimes.

    Take care...Mike

    I read it and I didn't think it was spam.......are you trying to stay relevant because you live in Singapore ? Truth
  • duckmanJRduckmanJR Posts: 21,116 AG
    I also did not read it as spam....and we get plenty of it here.
    There are many roads to travel
    Many things to do.
    Knots to be unraveled
    'fore the darkness falls on you
  • ResinheadResinhead Posts: 10,987 AG
    I think the *****bag thing relates to tarpon fishing. They all seem to be the same type of people.
  • ANUMBER1ANUMBER1 Posts: 11,758 AG
    I'm sure there is a need for that type of service but this one is free..

    http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/rtofs/rtofs_current_gulf.html
    I am glad to only be a bird hunter with bird dogs...being a shooter or dog handler or whatever other niche exists to separate appears to generate far too much about which to worry.
  • PilchardPilchard Posts: 1,373 Officer
    Tom,

    I am interested in how this relates to tarpon migrations. I have two questions for you:

    1. Can you share an updated image?
    2. Is there anywhere to get historical data on the loop current... I'm interested in what it looked like at this time in 1983.

    Thanks!
  • TampaCTTampaCT Posts: 63 Deckhand
    Well I for one found your post fascinating Tom Hilton.
  • Docked WagesDocked Wages Posts: 2,927 Admin
    I am going to surgically clean up this thread and remove the nonsense. No warnings but lets just stay on topic. If someone thinks there is an issue please PM me or another mod. Thanks for your understanding.
    Mark P. Wilson
    Marine Surveyor, SAMS-SA, ABYC
    Wilson Yacht Survey, Inc




  • flatlanticflatlantic Port Fierce, FLPosts: 1 Greenhorn
    Dr. Olson: https://www.rsmas.miami.edu/people/faculty?p=donald-olson

    Geez, Tom Hilton does a good job on his site. Why make him cannon fodder? There's a lot to learn on where not-to-fish fellas
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