Weekend Outlook Report

Periodically I am looking to use this thread to lay out some of my fishing plans throughout the year. I've found that unless your able to invest your time regularly, it can be quite difficult for an average angler to find success on the water. I am by no means a professional but feel free to ask questions or contribute. Thanks

Replies

  • PapaJoePapaJoe Posts: 14 Greenhorn
    Thanks Jeremy, this is terrific stuff.
  • nofishtodaynofishtoday Posts: 1,167 Officer
    Excellent
    Thanks
  • Jeremy 1Jeremy 1 Posts: 13 Greenhorn
    If your planing on being out on the water this weekend or Fishing the Old Salt Tourney weather will be a discerning factor in your success. With the front moving in this weekend it is important to be well aware of how these conditions will affect your fishing.

    Weather:
    Temperatures should range from the low 50s to the low 60s throughout the weekend with possible showers, overcast and moderate wind from the north. Water temperature on the other hand should remain relatively constant around the low 70s as this cold weather will only be here for a brief stent.

    Tides:

    Saturday and Sunday morning will have strong out going tides with the peak low dipping into the negatives. These tides accompanied by strong winds from the north should move a tremendous amount of water out of the bay. Mid-morning this weekend should be a day of cold barren sand bars, and exposed oyster beds. In the afternoon look for a shorter than anticipated incoming tide as winds from the north will curb the amount of water coming back in.

    Best Options:

    Considering the conditions your best bet is going to target the mid to upper stretches of the bay. Look for creek mouths, docks and deeper troughs early as the tides falls out. If your able to get to the mouth of one of these creeks around the bay, anchor down cast upstream and work your bait slowly across the bottom. As the mid morning approaches strong out going tides accompanied by these winds are going to push a significant amount of water out. Look for deep troughs near sand bars and wade fish as everything on the flat will fall into these holes. These locations should produce throughout the the entire weekend as the incoming tide will fall short of the anticipated height.

    Bait of choice should include smaller profiles such as paddle tails and Mirrolure's Lil John baits. But Crustacean imitations such as gulp shrimp or crabs will also produce well as the colder weather may leave many game fish dormant during the early hours. I would advise to work baits slow near the bottom and if your able to locate fish make sure your working the area thoroughly as many fish may be holding there.

    Good Luck
  • Jeremy 1Jeremy 1 Posts: 13 Greenhorn
    Weather

    With temperatures this week reaching as low as the 50s in some areas, water temperatures will continue to cool which may lead to changes in feeding patterns. All this week we should see a pattern of weather which will range from 50s in the early morning to mid 70s by the late afternoon. Partly cloudy conditions this weekend could hinder the afternoon warm up so try to avoid areas with heavy cloud cover. (Unrealistic) If possible target the west bank of mangrove shorelines to avoid shaded areas; these will generally warm up quicker. Also the relatively light wind pushing from the north should not play a major factor.

    Tides

    Look for a consistent push of water into the bay as tides are predicted to range from +.05 ft above mean tide level to +2.1 ft. Minimal winds from the north and weak outgoing tides should allow the bay to retain a good amount of water even on peak lows throughout the weekend. This extra water will allow game fish to reach warm shallow water areas great for spotting fish along shorelines.

    Best Options

    With cooler water conditions targeting the mid to upper bay is a must. Optimal times will be between 12PM to late afternoon as the temperature will continue to rise throughout the day. A key factor to locating fish will be finding warm water areas which will include the west bank of mangrove shorelines, and thick dark mud in shallow water areas. These areas will avoid shade and retain warmth needed to attract game fish.

    During the afternoon high tides look for wakes along mangrove shorelines as fish will hold near these shallow areas. Trout and redfish will be the main targets and both species should be staging along these shorelines throughout the day. With the incoming tides there should be an exceptional amount of water on the flats and should allow vessels to navigate with ease. Using small bait profiles such as paddle tails, jerk shads, worms and shrimp, target shallow areas and work the bait slow. Snook are going to be hit or miss, if you have access to a warm water spillway or outlet these fish will stack up in numbers. If not many fish may be quite lethargic.

    Also:
    If your able to bare the frigid cold of the Florida winter at night, deep water docks will be holding larger fish. Target older docks with larger vessels such as yachts and sailboats. These large docks / Marinas will hold larger lethargic Snook and other by-species. Your best bet for this type of fishing is to beef up your tackle and use large live shrimp. when targeting these docks use your live shrimp and chum around this structure. If there is fish holding you should have a good shot at getting them to eat.

    Good Luck
  • PCBerryManPCBerryMan Posts: 24 Greenhorn
    Great report and advice, I will be using some of your tips this weekend!
  • Jeremy 1Jeremy 1 Posts: 13 Greenhorn
    Weather
    Nights are still cold but even with the front coming through we should still be reaching the mid-70s this weekend. Wind direction will be inconsistent but should not play a factor as wind speed will remain slow.

    Tides
    This weekend will present an early morning low tide and a big incoming push throughout the afternoon. This push of water will bring game fish on to the flats to feed, and should provide opportunity in shallow backwater areas of the bay.

    Best Options
    Target areas with thick turtle grass and potholes as Redfish and trout will be holding to theses areas with the afternoon incoming tide. Using smaller bait fish profiles place your cast just beyond potholes on the flat and work them slowly through along the bottom. Prop scars also provide a great ambush point for predators and should be targeted as well.

    Tip#
    Be prepared for floating grass piles as the recent storm and strong winds may have pushed a lot of grass across the flats. If you come across large grass piles pushed against mangrove lines you may have a good shot at finding a good number of snook. Using a bass technique called "Punching" you'll be able to fish through the heavy floating grass and get to the snook underneath. The un-related link below lays out the technique and rigging of punching. My only suggestion would be to utilize a bait pattern that matches the waters your fishing.
    http://live2fish.ca/punching-grass-mats-hit-heavyweight/

    If your looking for some night time action fish will still be holding on dock lights and on bridges near area passes. If your targeting the passes try using a 1.5 - 2oz hawk jig and fish during moving tides. At night when the temperature drops bigger Snook and even Gag Grouper will sit at the bottom waiting for an easy meal. Drag your bait slowly across the bottom near bridge fenders and structure and you should find fish.
  • SportsFanSportsFan Posts: 146 Deckhand
    Hi Jeremy, thank you for these reports, I fish both from a kayak and a boat and it seems it's pretty hit and miss when I fish. I maybe heading out in the boat Mon or Tues this week, either up the Manatee River, Sarasota bay or may cruise just off Anna Maria. Area's or suggestions for this time of year ?
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  • Jeremy 1Jeremy 1 Posts: 13 Greenhorn
    SportsFan wrote: »
    Hi Jeremy, thank you for these reports, I fish both from a kayak and a boat and it seems it's pretty hit and miss when I fish. I maybe heading out in the boat Mon or Tues this week, either up the Manatee River, Sarasota bay or may cruise just off Anna Maria. Area's or suggestions for this time of year ?

    Well I personally don't do much fishing on the south shore, but one place I know holds a good amount of fish near there is Miguel bay. Look for some deeper troughs and fish the grass edges. You should have no problem finding Redfish on the flats and Trout over deeper potholes. Also there are two channels that line Ed's Key on the north and south ends, give these a try on moving tides. As for the Manatee river I've been told it's a great place but I've never fished it. Maybe it's something I'll give a shot sometime.
  • Soda PopinskiSoda Popinski GrovelandPosts: 9,955 Admiral
    what's it looking like for Sunday? I'm seeing 5-8kt winds early Sunday morning. Might see if i can sneak out of Pass a Grille into the gulf.
    People use statistics the way a drunk uses a street light, for support rather than illumination.
  • Jeremy 1Jeremy 1 Posts: 13 Greenhorn
    Inshore Weekend Outlook 2/17/17
    With mild conditions and the holiday weekend here expect a tremendous amount of traffic on the water. It will be imperative that you properly prepare if your looking to have any luck as fish will have a lot of angler pressure. Find a secluded area, anchor down and prepare to wait out the fish.


    Weather:
    With yesterday's strong winds from the west slowing down, this weekend brings calmer conditions and a strong possibility of rain pushing in from the gulf on Saturday. Temperature will remain moderate peaking around the upper 70s mid-day so day break may not be your best choice.


    Tides
    Water movement doesn't appear to be be in our favor this weekend as tides will be slow moving, and will remain within about a one foot range from low to high. Regardless fish will need to eat, so try to target a bottle neck area of creeks which will improve water movement.


    Best Options:
    Sleep in and plan to target the mid-day to late afternoon. The waters not freezing but fish will be moving more as the flats warm up. Also with the holiday weekend upon us try to avoid areas popular with recreational boating; as their general concern of your activities on the water usually have zero value. If your able to, try targeting backwater areas with mangrove cover or deep water grass flats. Fish will be holding to these areas.

    If fish continue to spook throughout the day try using cut bait along the bottom. I suggest using an ounce weight and a moderate sized piece of cut bait on a circle hook. Let this bait sit in the deeper pockets on the flat and actively fish using other artificials imitating smaller profiles. Mirrolure Lil John, and paddle tails do wonders when worked properly.
  • Soda PopinskiSoda Popinski GrovelandPosts: 9,955 Admiral
    Son of a Blank I forgot it was a holiday weekend. I'm not even going to bother. Thanks for the report though!
    People use statistics the way a drunk uses a street light, for support rather than illumination.
  • Soda PopinskiSoda Popinski GrovelandPosts: 9,955 Admiral
    Ok, lets try this again! Looks good for Saturday morning. Hopefully people will be on the other coast for the nascar race and we'll get a little less traffic on the water. I think we're going to head out of O'neils in the early AM and if the wind cooperates we might try our luck out of Pass a Grille off the beach and see if we can't find a straggler king. Plan is to go out with pins, squid, shrimp, and probably a bag of chum just in case we don't like it and decide to head back into the bay. Not sure yet if i'll bother with stingers or just stick with 40lb flouro as a leader.
    People use statistics the way a drunk uses a street light, for support rather than illumination.
  • FusionZ06FusionZ06 Posts: 975 Officer
    Ok, lets try this again! Looks good for Saturday morning. Hopefully people will be on the other coast for the nascar race and we'll get a little less traffic on the water. I think we're going to head out of O'neils in the early AM and if the wind cooperates we might try our luck out of Pass a Grille off the beach and see if we can't find a straggler king. Plan is to go out with pins, squid, shrimp, and probably a bag of chum just in case we don't like it and decide to head back into the bay. Not sure yet if i'll bother with stingers or just stick with 40lb flouro as a leader.

    Beach is going to be dirty after this blow. I wouldn't waste my time looking for kings right now off the beach. With the dirty water and blow fish will be on structure. Go find structure and bottom fish.
  • Soda PopinskiSoda Popinski GrovelandPosts: 9,955 Admiral
    FusionZ06 wrote: »
    Beach is going to be dirty after this blow. I wouldn't waste my time looking for kings right now off the beach. With the dirty water and blow fish will be on structure. Go find structure and bottom fish.

    thanks man. Appreciated. The one thing i hate doing is wasting time on the water. The boy keeps mentioning cobia so maybe we'll tool around the flats looking for one. That or like you said find structure and get some bottom feeders into the box for dinner.
    People use statistics the way a drunk uses a street light, for support rather than illumination.
  • FusionZ06FusionZ06 Posts: 975 Officer
    thanks man. Appreciated. The one thing i hate doing is wasting time on the water. The boy keeps mentioning cobia so maybe we'll tool around the flats looking for one. That or like you said find structure and get some bottom feeders into the box for dinner.

    You should be able to hit just about any rock pile or artificial reef and clean up on sheepshead.
  • Jeremy 1Jeremy 1 Posts: 13 Greenhorn
    Inshore Weekend Outlook 2/24/17

    I'll be on the water myself this weekend as conditions are set to be reminiscent of spring patterns. Warm weather will kick off the weekend and strong incoming tides will be pushing throughout the day. Reports are saying Reds can be found in north county but the Snook and trout bite are great on the flats and bridges of Fort Desoto. I was even told by a guide that Snook are being found on the beach near Bunces pass but they're not consistent.

    Weather:
    Expect relatively warm temperatures as the day progress, and light to moderate winds throughout the weekend. No rain is anticipated in the Bay area and water temperatures will remain warm.

    Tides:
    Anticipate close to negative tides to start the morning and the incoming tide to start around 10 A.M through 3 P.M.

    Best Options:
    With the warm weather and mild conditions set for this weekend I expect for a pretty decent outing. Local guides are reporting Redfish in the upper Tampa bay regions, but be prepared to search for fish. The water is clear and fish will spook easy. Also from my experience last week these fish are keyed into small baits; specifically small mud crabs. I had a few opportunities at cruising fish using 3 inch paddle tails and a hard bait with no luck. My efforts only yielded mid-sized Trout.

    On the south Pinellas side Snook are being found near bridges and mangrove cover. These Snook will be stacked up in specific areas with good water flow and bait so if your finding fish stay put and keep casting. Guides are using heavy chumming methods to get these fish to eat and good sized fish are being caught.

    My suggestion will be to stick with smaller baits in the north county and white bait presentations toward the south end.

    Good Luck
  • Soda PopinskiSoda Popinski GrovelandPosts: 9,955 Admiral
    FusionZ06 wrote: »
    You should be able to hit just about any rock pile or artificial reef and clean up on sheepshead.

    We did and i wouldn't say we cleaned up, but we had a lot of fun. Got rocked up multiple times on our bottom rig by grouper, but we had a lot of fun out there.
    People use statistics the way a drunk uses a street light, for support rather than illumination.
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