This week's cold front.

Hi everyone,

Our next significant cold front should arrive tomorrow (Tuesday), with a northerly blow (20-25 knots) setting in from west to east during the day. The clear, warm, and humid weather of this afternoon will give way to increasing cloud cover, rapidly developing showers, and even a few thunderstorms over the western marine zones (north and west of Dry Tortugas) by later this evening. Timing of frontal wind surges is always subject to some error, even 12-24 hours out. However, here is our best estimate of the arrival of the northerly wind surge at various Keys locations:

Garden Key, Dry Tortugas: Between 3:00 and 6:00 a.m.
Key West Harbor: Between 7:00 and 10:00 a.m.
Boot Key Harbor: Between 8:00 and 11:00 a.m.
Islamorada: Between 10:00 a.m. and 1:00 p.m.
Ocean Reef: Between 12:00 and 3:00 p.m.
Cay Sal Bank: Between 2:00 and 5:00 p.m.

The stronger breezes will set in earlier to the west and north, and later to the east and south.

Air temperatures likely will start out in the mid 70s early Tuesday, and fall into the 60s during the day as increasing northerly breezes transport the cooler and drier air southward.

Skies should remain mostly cloudy with the best chance for heavier rain late tonight and Tuesday morning, with occasional lighter rain possible Tuesday afternoon and night.

Seas will build most of the day Tuesday in the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico, reaching 5-7 feet between Marco Island and Key West, and 7-10 feet north and west of Dry Tortugas by late afternoon. Wave growth in the Straits of Florida will be more modest due the later arrival of strong breezes and shorter wind fetch. However, by early Wednesday, significant wave heights should range from about 3-4 feet near the Florida Reef to 8 or 9 feet in the Gulf Stream.

Sustained winds likely will peak close to 25 knots Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning with some slackening thereafter. Gusts will be higher over the warmer Straits of Florida.

Please refer to the following links for additional forecast details and updates:

Hourly Weather Graph for Selected Florida Keys Marine Locations:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/key/?n=marineweathergraph

Florida Keys Coastal Waters Forecast:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=CWF&issuedby=KEY

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