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Phase 4 redraws are up

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  • If_it_flies_it_diesIf_it_flies_it_dies Posts: 1,133 Officer
    huntmstr wrote: »
    Why stop at limiting one choice per hunt? Why not also make it a rule then if you drew a hunt already, you can't enter phase 4? That would be even more fair now wouldn't it?

    This is real simple. You're not getting all the permits you once did under FCFS and it makes you mad. So rather than concede that this is truly a fair system, you're looking for ways to complain about it to justify your anger and limit everyone's chances to get additional permits.

    Not going to get into an argument with you but you are flat out wrong. People will apply for 5 hunts just because they can.
    I'm not mad, maybe next year but not this year. I was actually done applying, didn't need anymore hunts. Have 3 quotas. But now WTH I can apply at my leisure for 15 places. No hassle.

    And BTW; last year you were all for FCFS and were telling everyone to stop whining about it being unfair. Now it is the worst most unfair thing ever. C'mon now; give me a break.
  • JRussellJRussell Posts: 1,411 Officer
    huntmstr wrote: »
    This is real simple. You're not getting all the permits you once did under FCFS and it makes you mad. So rather than concede that this is truly a fair system, you're looking for ways to complain about it to justify your anger and limit everyone's chances to get additional permits.

    It is simple. The system has some obvious issues. Some are an easy fix. The majority seems to agree that 5 choices is too many.
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  • pbsnookerpbsnooker Posts: 882 Officer
    I like the 5 choices, object of the lottery is to get picked before permits run out. Not hoping people that were picked before you did not get a permit.
  • Centropomus spp.Centropomus spp. Posts: 343 Deckhand
    not a single permit in minimum 3 categories times 4 weeks..... It wasn't broke but they sure fixed it now!
  • flattitudeflattitude Posts: 536 Officer
    GT Fish wrote: »
    I try all the time..Usually end up in small game shooting hogs. :(
    Hey I offered you to join in opening archery but you don't bowhunt.
  • Lc-hunter86Lc-hunter86 Posts: 2,927 Captain
    Honestly guys...quit bickering about it...it's done and over with. This system works to distribute permits randomly and fairly. In a way I like the up to 5 choices. I have lots of wmas that I'll hunt if drawn.
  • duckmanJRduckmanJR Posts: 20,925 AG
    JRussell wrote: »
    That would benefit everyone by increasing their odds.

    No, it would benefit those who are whining like little schoolgirls because they stopped letting the same kids eat all the cookies......It is all about increasing *YOUR* odds...not anyone elses and stop trying to say its not...it is disingenuous.

    Selfish people hate fair...it offers no advantage.
    There are many roads to travel
    Many things to do.
    Knots to be unraveled
    'fore the darkness falls on you
  • mrbillmrbill Posts: 1,194 Officer
    Honestly guys...quit bickering about it...it's done and over with. This system works to distribute permits randomly and fairly. In a way I like the up to 5 choices. I have lots of wmas that I'll hunt if drawn.
    is fair now just a ton of people want something that there is very few of !!!!
  • If_it_flies_it_diesIf_it_flies_it_dies Posts: 1,133 Officer
    duckmanJR wrote: »
    No, it would benefit those who are whining like little schoolgirls because they stopped letting the same kids eat all the cookies......It is all about increasing *YOUR* odds...not anyone elses and stop trying to say its not...it is disingenuous.

    Selfish people hate fair...it offers no advantage.

    How would limiting choices to 1 per person benefit any one person more than someone else? How would it not be "fair"? Please enlighten me.
  • JRussellJRussell Posts: 1,411 Officer
    duckmanJR wrote: »
    No, it would benefit those who are whining like little schoolgirls because they stopped letting the same kids eat all the cookies......It is all about increasing *YOUR* odds...not anyone elses and stop trying to say its not...it is disingenuous.

    Selfish people hate fair...it offers no advantage.

    Lol well it doesn't take a genius to figure out that increasing "my" odds in a drawing is also increasing everyone else's odds just the same. Most people seem to have no trouble understanding the concept that there aren't enough returned permits to go around for 5 choices.

    Likewise stupid people hate logic...it frustrates them to the point of using childish remarks.
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  • huntmstrhuntmstr Posts: 6,290 Admiral
    How would limiting choices to 1 per person benefit any one person more than someone else? How would it not be "fair"? Please enlighten me.

    JRussell wrote: »
    Lol well it doesn't take a genius to figure out that increasing "my" odds in a drawing is also increasing everyone else's odds just the same. Most people seem to have no trouble understanding the concept that there aren't enough returned permits to go around for 5 choices.

    Likewise stupid people hate logic...it frustrates them to the point of using childish remarks.

    So by this logic then, 1 permit per person per year would be more fair and increase everyone's odds of getting a permit. So sit down and stay home. You're had your permits for the year.
    Bushnell, Primos and Final Approach Pro Staff. Proud member of the Fab Five, Big Leaugers and Bobble Head 4.

    I had you pissed off at hello.
  • JRussellJRussell Posts: 1,411 Officer
    huntmstr wrote: »
    So by this logic then, 1 permit per person per year would be more fair and increase everyone's odds of getting a permit. So sit down and stay home. You're had your permits for the year.

    Your confused as to the difference between restricting hunting opportunities and making the weekly returns drawing better for everyone.
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  • BowtechGen3BowtechGen3 Altoona, FlPosts: 778 Officer
    The New System has treated our Group (20 Guys & Gals) Fairly Well with us Picking up a total of 13 Permits So Far. It seems to be functioning correctly and not giving any glitches that I have noticed. I think the Biggest issue is that each week there seems to be less and less options avalible. I know that some hunts are passing by each week and thus they will not be avaliable now but I thought there seemed to be more tags avaliable last year during this time period but I may be mistaken
    Director - Central Florida Dog Hunters & Sportsmans Association
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  • huntmstrhuntmstr Posts: 6,290 Admiral
    JRussell wrote: »
    Your confused as to the difference between restricting hunting opportunities and making the weekly returns drawing better for everyone.

    No sir. It's you who are confused.

    Limiting each applicant to only one choice reduces their likelihood of getting drawn but does nothing to spread out the distribution of permits. All things being equal, if there are 10,000 applicants for 50 gun permits, each with one choice, that is a 1 in 200 chance of getting a permit. If they each have 5 choices, that is a 1 in 40 chance of getting a permit.

    The reality is that there are different odds for different permits. Those returned permits for which there are only 1 and for which they are highly sought will have lesser odds of success than those permits for which there are multiples on a less desired area.

    If there is 1 permit for Dinner Island gun and 3000 people list that as a choice, then there is a 1:3000 chance you will get that permit. If there are 4 gun permits for Three Lakes gun, but there are only 1000 applicants listing it as a choice, your odd's are then 1:250 in getting a permit.

    If your argument is based on fair distribution of chance at obtaining a permit, then more choices actually equals more chances to win a permit, not less. Sure, it's less of a chance than it was under FCFS, but FCFS is no longer a viable option. Therefore, any argument using FCFS as an odds derivative is fallacious.

    If your argument is based on equal distribution of all returned permits, then the most judicious and equitable distribution of permits is one per person per season and all hunters who have obtained a permit should be removed from the redraw process so that those who have obtained ZERO permits have a chance at something.

    Either way. you're going to have to come to the realization that the current random draw is the most equitable and fairest way to distribute the returned permits as everyone has an equal ability to apply for the permits of their choice. Odds will vary based on the number of applicants, number of available permits and demand for same. Reducing your choices to 1 will not increase your odds, but diminish them.
    Bushnell, Primos and Final Approach Pro Staff. Proud member of the Fab Five, Big Leaugers and Bobble Head 4.

    I had you pissed off at hello.
  • GT FishGT Fish Posts: 9,448 Officer
    JRussell wrote: »
    Your confused as to the difference between restricting hunting opportunities and making the weekly returns drawing better for everyone.

    How many permits you get this year? that's what i thought lol...
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  • FlredbonesFlredbones Posts: 261 Officer
    huntmstr wrote: »
    So why put in for permits you aren't excited to get? I've yet to put in for any permits I'm not stoked to use if I get it. In fact, I've yet to apply for more than 3 permits in any one application. I'm not going to put in for 5 choices just because I can, especially when there's no chance I will use any of the others I don't really want. Moreover, I have already made plans for several of the weekends where there were permits available for areas I would use. But since I already have plans, there's no sense in applying for those permits either. I hope who ever drew them uses them and is successful. QUOTE]

    Its not that I'm not excited, it's more the fact that it was my last choice and that there were other permits that I would be way more stoked to get. By all means I'm still going to use it, If I didn't plan on it I would return it of course, but like I said getting your last choice is better than not getting any at all.
  • huntmstrhuntmstr Posts: 6,290 Admiral
    I can understand and respect that to a certain degree. It's a matter of personal choice and you are entitled to make that decision. As for me, I only put in for the permits I truly want if they are available. If there is a marginal permit I could grab but am not excited to get, I don't apply. Any place that has a 9 day quota which then goes into open hunting format isn't worth spending the time applying for IMO. Some guys feel otherwise and that's great. As I said before, even if it's not the one you really wanted, but you're going to use it and enjoy it, then I wish you all the best of luck and hope you have success on the hunt.

    :thumbsup
    Bushnell, Primos and Final Approach Pro Staff. Proud member of the Fab Five, Big Leaugers and Bobble Head 4.

    I had you pissed off at hello.
  • JRussellJRussell Posts: 1,411 Officer
    GT Fish wrote: »
    How many permits you get this year? that's what i thought lol...

    I don't see what that has to do with this discussion, but none under the new Ph 4 system.
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  • huntmstrhuntmstr Posts: 6,290 Admiral
    JRussell wrote: »
    I don't see what that has to do with this discussion, but none under the new Ph 4 system.

    Goes to show state of mind, counselor. Answer the question.
    I will restate, how many permits have you drawn this year in total and how many did you get under BOTH phase 3 and phase 4 redraws?
    Bushnell, Primos and Final Approach Pro Staff. Proud member of the Fab Five, Big Leaugers and Bobble Head 4.

    I had you pissed off at hello.
  • bowhunter4lifebowhunter4life Posts: 1,585 Captain
    I believe fwc has recognized who the quota permit **** of fcfs were....NO MORE PERMITS FOR THEM!
  • JRussellJRussell Posts: 1,411 Officer
    huntmstr wrote: »
    No sir. It's you who are confused.

    Limiting each applicant to only one choice reduces their likelihood of getting drawn but does nothing to spread out the distribution of permits.

    That statement contradicts itself. If the choices are reduced for the first ones drawn that does in fact help to distribute the permits more evenly throughout all the applicants.
    huntmstr wrote: »
    If there is 1 permit for Dinner Island gun and 3000 people list that as a choice, then there is a 1:3000 chance you will get that permit. If there are 4 gun permits for Three Lakes gun, but there are only 1000 applicants listing it as a choice, your odd's are then 1:250 in getting a permit.

    Yeah we can all do the basic math and see that. What you're missing is that if 2000 of those 3000 people had a first (and only) choice that wasn't DI it would increase the others odds who want DI 1st by 3X's.
    huntmstr wrote: »
    If your argument is based on fair distribution of chance at obtaining a permit, then more choices actually equals more chances to win a permit, not less. Sure, it's less of a chance than it was under FCFS, but FCFS is no longer a viable option. Therefore, any argument using FCFS as an odds derivative is fallacious.

    More choices only helps the ones who are drawn very early since we are talking about only a handful of available permits. Less choices spreads the available permits out over a larger number of applicants.

    The reason its been compared to the odds under FCFS is because we're still talking about the same very limited number of available permits. Even you admit the chances are less now under Ph 4, but they don't have to be...that's the whole point.
    huntmstr wrote: »
    If your argument is based on equal distribution of all returned permits, then the most judicious and equitable distribution of permits is one per person per season and all hunters who have obtained a permit should be removed from the redraw process so that those who have obtained ZERO permits have a chance at something.

    Did you really think this through before posting it? Permits are returned continuously throughout the Ph 4 process so people have no way of predicting what will become available each week. If it is a "fair random drawing" there is no reason to restrict people's hunting opportunities just because they win a permit early on.
    huntmstr wrote: »
    Either way. you're going to have to come to the realization that the current random draw is the most equitable and fairest way to distribute the returned permits as everyone has an equal ability to apply for the permits of their choice. Odds will vary based on the number of applicants, number of available permits and demand for same. Reducing your choices to 1 will not increase your odds, but diminish them.

    I've already accepted the change but you just continue to harp on it and post this same crap over and over (which ironically you threaten to ban other people for doing IF their opinion differs from yours).

    Plain and simple, if the choices are reduced it spreads the distribution of permits over a larger amount of applicants. There's still only a set amount of permits to give out, but it would allow those who aren't drawn in the very beginning to have a better chance at getting one.
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  • JRussellJRussell Posts: 1,411 Officer
    huntmstr wrote: »
    Goes to show state of mind, counselor. Answer the question.
    I will restate, how many permits have you drawn this year in total and how many did you get under BOTH phase 3 and phase 4 redraws?

    Why do you feel that's any of your business? I don't go around asking you and others all the details of their permit history. I already answered the question as it pertains to Ph 4...none.
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  • huntmstrhuntmstr Posts: 6,290 Admiral
    JRussell wrote: »
    That statement contradicts itself. If the choices are reduced for the first ones drawn that does in fact help to distribute the permits more evenly throughout all the applicants.

    No sir. There is no contradiction. Read it again and comprehend that every permit will be distributed. Every person has only 1 chance to get a specific permit. If he has 5 choices, he doesn't have 5 chances at the same permit, he only has the 1 at that permit. But he does have more chances for any permit, not just a specific 1. Therefore, neither odds nor distribution are enhanced by limiting the choice to 1.
    JRussell wrote: »
    Yeah we can all do the basic math and see that. What you're missing is that if 2000 of those 3000 people had a first (and only) choice that wasn't DI it would increase the others odds who want DI 1st by 3X's.

    Sure, I stated as much in the my response. But where odds go up in one location, they go down in another. However, allowing for 5 choices per person increases the individual's odds of obtaining at least 1 permit for a hunt. Therefore, more choices equals better odds of winning.
    JRussell wrote: »
    More choices only helps the ones who are drawn very early since we are talking about only a handful of available permits. Less choices spreads the available permits out over a larger number of applicants.

    Being drawn early is part of the random draw process. Unlike FCFS, at least every applicant has a chance to be drawn. This argument is ridiculous! What you're saying is, "I have a better chance of getting a permit if I'm drawn before everyone else, otherwise my choices may be gone by the time my application is pulled." Seriously? That's your argument? And if a frog had wings he wouldn't bump his butt when he goes to hopping. :rolleyes
    JRussell wrote: »
    The reason its been compared to the odds under FCFS is because we're still talking about the same very limited number of available permits. Even you admit the chances are less now under Ph 4, but they don't have to be...that's the whole point.

    I never said the chances are less. I said your individual chances will vary depending on the number of applicants choosing any given permit. No matter how many applicants there are or how many permits are available, odds of success are increased simply because EVERYONE has the ABILITIY to enter the drawing. Under FCFS, many people couldn't even get into the system.
    JRussell wrote: »
    Did you really think this through before posting it? Permits are returned continuously throughout the Ph 4 process so people have no way of predicting what will become available each week. If it is a "fair random drawing" there is no reason to restrict people's hunting opportunities just because they win a permit early on.

    Again, you misunderstand. If you have a permit and you use it, then you were successful in obtaining a permit. All things being equal, if you want to argue distribution, then the most equitable distribution of permits is one per person and no more. It's a hypothetical exercise in logic. Apparently it's either beyond your comprehension or you refuse to accept it because it doesn't advance your argument. I'm going with the latter since I'm sure you're smart enough to understand it.
    JRussell wrote: »
    I've already accepted the change but you just continue to harp on it and post this same crap over and over (which ironically you threaten to ban other people for doing IF their opinion differs from yours).

    I'm not the one complaining, you are. I'm only rebutting your fallacious arguments. And I have not threatened a ban on anyone for civilized debate. We are being civil here. No one is calling anyone names. No one is making personal attacks. And if there is anyone repeating the same arguments, it's you. But I'm allowing you all the space you need to get your point across. So far, it's been unsuccessful.
    JRussell wrote: »
    Plain and simple, if the choices are reduced it spreads the distribution of permits over a larger amount of applicants. There's still only a set amount of permits to give out, but it would allow those who aren't drawn in the very beginning to have a better chance at getting one.

    Every person has the right to apply for each type of hunt. Changing that would require a rule change, not a procedural change. You can not limit the applicant's attempt at each type of hunt by making him choose between applying for a gun permit, archery permit, ML permits, family permit or hog permit. You MAY reduce his choices from 5 to 1, but again, that does not help any applicant's individual odds. Making an applicant choose between the 5 types of permits he will apply for can not be done on the fly. It requires a vote by the Commissioners and would be a rule change than MUST be amended in the Florida Administrative Code. If that's what you want, I suggest you get that request in to staff for draft rule proposal... and I wish you lots of luck. I just hope they wait until after you hang up with them to laugh.
    JRussell wrote: »
    Why do you feel that's any of your business? I don't go around asking you and others all the details of their permit history. I already answered the question as it pertains to Ph 4...none.

    You're the one arguing in circles Mr. Russell. If you want to convince us this has anything to do with fairness and distribution of chance, then why the secrecy as to the number of permits you got in phase 3?

    The truth is you were successful almost every time in phase 3 and you've been skunked in phase 4. It's selfishness and nothing more. That's why you keep looking for ways to justify your arguments.

    I'm sorry you can't grasp the simple concept of statistics. My previous post, (which you tried to debunk - unsuccessfully I may add) was clear and shows simply how more choices per applicant increases the individual's odds rather than reduces them.
    Bushnell, Primos and Final Approach Pro Staff. Proud member of the Fab Five, Big Leaugers and Bobble Head 4.

    I had you pissed off at hello.
  • JRussellJRussell Posts: 1,411 Officer
    huntmstr wrote: »
    I never said the chances are less.

    huntmstr wrote: »
    Sure, it's less of a chance than it was under FCFS, but FCFS is no longer a viable option.

    Seems to me that's exactly what you said.

    Ok I realize you just don't get the concept and you don't care to try.
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  • JRussellJRussell Posts: 1,411 Officer
    huntmstr wrote: »
    Every person has the right to apply for each type of hunt. Changing that would require a rule change, not a procedural change. You can not limit the applicant's attempt at each type of hunt by making him choose between applying for a gun permit, archery permit, ML permits, family permit or hog permit. You MAY reduce his choices from 5 to 1, but again, that does not help any applicant's individual odds. Making an applicant choose between the 5 types of permits he will apply for can not be done on the fly. It requires a vote by the Commissioners and would be a rule change than MUST be amended in the Florida Administrative Code. If that's what you want, I suggest you get that request in to staff for draft rule proposal... and I wish you lots of luck. I just hope they wait until after you hang up with them to laugh.

    This really demonstrates your lack of comprehension.

    I never once at any time suggested what you're referring to above. I clearly said they should reduce the amount of choices to 1-2 max PER HUNT TYPE.
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  • JRussellJRussell Posts: 1,411 Officer
    huntmstr wrote: »
    ...then why the secrecy as to the number of permits you got in phase 3?

    The truth is you were successful almost every time in phase 3 and you've been skunked in phase 4.

    Because as I've stated about 3 times already there is no Ph 3 anymore and this discussion is about Ph 4.

    The truth is you don't know what you're talking about. I got lucky a couple times this year in Ph 3 when the system had complete crashes and was able to get a couple permits. It was pure luck and has no bearing on ways that Ph 4 can be improved. I'm looking ahead at ways the system can be improved and you're simply reverting back to dwelling on what permits I may have gotten in Ph 3. Guess what, it's irrelevant.
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  • huntmstrhuntmstr Posts: 6,290 Admiral
    JRussell wrote: »
    This really demonstrates your lack of comprehension.

    I never once at any time suggested what you're referring to above. I clearly said they should reduce the amount of choices to 1-2 max PER HUNT TYPE.

    If this is your contention and you want to limit each hunt type to 1-2 choices, then an individual's odds of getting a permit are diminished compared to having 5 choices. There is I other way to look at it.
    Bushnell, Primos and Final Approach Pro Staff. Proud member of the Fab Five, Big Leaugers and Bobble Head 4.

    I had you pissed off at hello.
  • huntmstrhuntmstr Posts: 6,290 Admiral
    JRussell wrote: »
    Because as I've stated about 3 times already there is no Ph 3 anymore and this discussion is about Ph 4.

    The truth is you don't know what you're talking about. I got lucky a couple times this year in Ph 3 when the system had complete crashes and was able to get a couple permits. It was pure luck and has no bearing on ways that Ph 4 can be improved. I'm looking ahead at ways the system can be improved and you're simply reverting back to dwelling on what permits I may have gotten in Ph 3. Guess what, it's irrelevant.
    It's only irrelevant if you weren't constantly bringing up FCFS. But since you continue to compare fairness of one system over another and continue to argue fewer choices per person, it is relevant. It's also relevant to see how many you got pre-change. If I were Gettig permits every week in FCFS and none in random, I might be upset too, if I weren't more concerned about fairness for all having the chance to apply.

    Look, you've made your mind up. You've posted your reasons. Most don't agree with you and the response has been overwhelmingly positive at FWC. Sorry you feel so disenfranchised, but you're in the minority.
    Bushnell, Primos and Final Approach Pro Staff. Proud member of the Fab Five, Big Leaugers and Bobble Head 4.

    I had you pissed off at hello.
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