Mini Season Deaths? OVER/UNDER

I'm setting the over under on deaths in Monroe county related to mini season at 2.5. For the sake of the bet, only deaths that were caused on or in the water will count.

I'm going with the OVER
1 fat guy from Oviedo that dives once a year will die of a heart attack.

1 frat boy will get away from his buddies and drift out to sea never to be seen again

1 belligerent drunk guy will be shot by another belligerent drunk guy while arguing over who's "spot" this is.

What do ya'll think? Over or Under 2.5?
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