Here is a link to the pdf.http://www.gulfcouncil.org/news_resources/Press%20Releases/Standing%20&%20Special%20RF%20SSC%2011-12.pdf
Below is the gist of the pdf.
"The Standing and Special Reef Fish SSCs will meet jointly to review an analysis of the 2012 red snapper
overharvest. Under a rule published May 30, 2012 [77 FR 31734], the acceptable biological catch for
red snapper was set at 8.080 million pounds for 2013 and 8.690 million pounds for 2012, with 51
percent of the acceptable biological catch allocated to a commercial quota and 49 percent to a
recreational quota. The increase in the 2013 acceptable biological catch was contingent upon catch
levels remaining within the 2012 stock acceptable biological catch. Preliminary estimates indicate that
the 2012 recreational red snapper quota of 3.959 million pounds was exceeded by 440,000 - 840,000
pounds. As a result, the National Marine Fisheries Service Southeast Fisheries Science Center will
evaluate the effect of this overharvest on the red snapper rebuilding plan. Based on the results of the
analysis, the SSC will determine whether the acceptable biological catch can be increased to the 2013
level, should remain at the 2012 level, or should be set to some other level."
We did not go out once this year!!! We normally go out at least 4 or 5 times during the season.
This is the truly a sad day in America when logic and facts get so twisted that nothing makes since anymore. :huh
GOD help us all!!
440,000 - 840,000
the variance in the range itself is 102% to 203%...
This means that the level of confidence (or accuracy) is approximately 5%.
Since they can't find a narrow range...then obviously the range itself is in question.
Using basic statistical analysis, it could just as easily be that we under fished by 500,000 to 1,000,000 pounds....
Here is what is being claimed:
Estimate Status Year Common Name Harvest (A+B1) Total
Weight (lb) PSE Landings (no.) without
PRELIMINARY 2012 RED SNAPPER 4,575,680 11.2 0
Estimate Status Year Common Name Total Harvest (A+B1) PSE
PRELIMINARY 2012 RED SNAPPER 593,481 10.4
This equates to an average of a 7.7 pound fish....another dramatic increase...in fish size.
Under a realistic CPUE estimation regime....and increase like this would be indicative of an extremely HEALTHY fish stock....
Last year (2011) the average weight per fish was 6.7 pounds
in 2010 it was 4.96 pounds.
So in just 3 years of growth....the average fish size has increased by 155% and amazing rate of growth even for a snapper.
If we are seeing increasing larger and larger fish...then what we are seeing is not a fishery in decline but a healthy fish stock that shows singes of being fully rebuilt.
This is indicative that there are many fish older than 5 years and up...
We caught more in numbers and pounds with he same number of fishermen...
If I were to go to one of my clients with a range of 1/3 million dollars for a project....I would be laughed out of the meeting and lose a client.