Michael

Time to shore up or pull your boats.
FYI also, the Circle K at Kerry Forest and Shannon lakes now has ethanol free fuel.

F the feds
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Replies

  • fsuwxmanfsuwxman Posts: 1,265 Officer
    Well here we are again for the 3rd year in a row in Tallahassee looking at a TS/HURR potentially impacting the area. I haven’t had a chance to dig in to the data yet but will post once I do. 
    2015 FS Northwest Forum NASCAR Champion
  • Spanky DunlapSpanky Dunlap Posts: 674 Officer
    Yeah I don't like the look of this one. Lot's of hot water in the gulf to rev it up and a front coming down to steer it to the East at the last minute. One that wants to curve at the end makes for a difficult track to predict. And......Mike from Mike's Weather Page is calling for it to be stronger than the current predictions, like a Cat 2 or ???

    So it's move RV home from the coast and bring the boat too. What a PITA. 

    We should all pay attention to this one.  



  • GANDERGANDER Posts: 331 Deckhand
    Keeping you all and our beautiful SGI in our thoughts this week. Be safe all!
  • ferris1248ferris1248 Posts: 2,418 Moderator

    Track forecast for Michael: Florida Panhandle at highest risk

    There is fairly high model consensus on the general track of Michael, but some important details are yet to be resolved. Michael will be shuttled north to northeast between a summerlike ridge of high pressure along the U.S. East Coast and a seasonally strong trough across the West. The flow between the two features is pulling large amount of moisture across the Great Plains, where a corridor of heavy rain will drop 5” – 10” from Texas to Michigan early this week (a rainfall event that may be just as heavy and impactful as the rains from Michael).

    The eastern ridge will be gradually weakening into midweek as the western trough moves into the heart of the country. Together, these features will pull Michael northward, then northeastward. With this steering, Michael will reach the central Gulf Coast by midweek and then head back off the Southeast or mid-Atlantic coast by late week; it’s possible that Michael will drop 1” – 3” of unwanted rain across parts of South and North Carolina that were inundated by Hurricane Florence last month. Similar amounts could fall from the mid-Atlantic toward southern New England, depending on exactly how Michael tracks.

    Here’s the diagnosis from several of our top track models:

    —The last several runs of the GFS model (though 12Z Sunday) brought Michael to the western Florida Panhandle coast on Wednesday, across the central Carolinas on Thursday, and off the mid-Atlantic coast by Thursday night.

    —The experimental FV3-GFS model’s track is similar but a bit further to the northwest.

    —Sunday's 0Z and 12Z runs of the European model agreed on a western FL landfall, but not until Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The slower Euro solution also takes Michael on a more southerly inland track that would roll along or near the Carolina coast late Thursday into Friday and off the Outer Banks by late Friday.

    —Sunday’s 0Z and 12Z UKMET tracks were similar to the Euro’s. The 12Z UKMET and Euro model runs were concerning, as they showed the potential for Michael to emerge over water off the coast of South Carolina. Michael thus has the potential to affect a large portion of the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina as a strong tropical storm or Catgeory 1 hurricane.

    In general, the track solutions for the central Gulf Coast are close enough that they all fall comfortably within the NHC forecast cone, more so than usual for a prediction three days out. Michael’s greatest landfall impacts are likely to be along the Florida Panhandle coast, although residents of the Mississippi and Alabama coasts should remain on guard for now. Timing is a somewhat bigger uncertainty: Michael could make landfall as early as Wednesday morning (as predicted by NHC) or as late as Thursday morning. With this in mind, preparations should be completed on Monday wherever possible.




    ." why would someone want to be a moderator in the first place?"

    "There is no compensation for that task other than the satisfaction one might get from being an ***."

    mindyabizness

    "That which is hateful to you, do not do to your fellow. That is the whole of the law. The rest is commentary."

    Rabbi Hillel (c20 BCE)

  • BayBobBayBob Posts: 750 Officer
    Down at AP now getting things ready and moving the boat inland, got another 20 gallons of non ethanol for the generator and wondering how long it will take Franklin County to get us access out here, it's not going to take much wash the road away.
  • LiveLineLiveLine Wakulla County, FloridaPosts: 1,590 Captain
    Sandbag Locations
    • Tekesta Park, at Tekesta Drive and Deer Lake Road in Killearn Lakes (County)
    • Apalachee Regional Park (Landfill), 7550 Apalachee Parkway (County)
    • J. Lee Vause, 6024 Old Bainbridge Road (County)
    • At the intersection of Oak Ridge at Ranchero roads (County)
    • Winthrop Park, 1601 Mitchell Avenue (City)
    • James Messer Sports Complex, 2830 Jackson Bluff Road (City)
    County locations will be staffed, and all residents will need to bring their own shovel. Sand, bags and ties will be available for public use. Residents are asked to take no more than 20 bags (25 at City sites) so as to allow others to prepare. Staff will monitor the sites to replenish as needed.
  • limitlesslimitless Posts: 557 Officer
    I have my new Sea Hunt at a dry storage in PCB just inside St Andrews pass.  I was going to head down this morning to get her on the trailer and head north by tonight, but when I got up I had an email from them notifying me that they will be shut down as of noon today.  Also, we are having our townhouse on the beach renovated so all the new appliances, furniture, etc are in the garage.  I'm guessing I've got a lot of Insurance company wrangling time coming.
    Support the Snook & Gamefish Foundation
    http://sgf.gamefishcloud.com/

    Angler Action Program: IAngler app trip log on your phone
  • conchydongconchydong Pompano BeachPosts: 3,970 Captain

    Not much time for you guys to prepare but do your best and stay safe.

    Good luck to all in harms way.

    “Everyone behaves badly--given the chance.”
    ― Ernest Hemingway

  • micci_manmicci_man Somewhere in FLPosts: 12,597 AG

    Here is a site that is very interactive. You can bookmark locations on the map to see current and forecasted wind speed/gusts and other things.

    https://www.ventusky.com/?p=30.52;-84.42;8&l=wind-100m

    Common Sense can't be bought, taught or gifted, yet it is one of the few things in life that is free, and most refuse to even attempt to possess it. - Miguel Cervantes
  • ferris1248ferris1248 Posts: 2,418 Moderator
    Parts of Port St Joe are under a mandatory evacuation order just now.

    ." why would someone want to be a moderator in the first place?"

    "There is no compensation for that task other than the satisfaction one might get from being an ***."

    mindyabizness

    "That which is hateful to you, do not do to your fellow. That is the whole of the law. The rest is commentary."

    Rabbi Hillel (c20 BCE)

  • stc1993stc1993 Albany, GA Carrabelle, FLPosts: 4,844 Captain
    We got some bad storm clouds already.  It just now starting to rain I don't like the looks of those clouds, very black.
  • SloughSlough S.w. Ga./ St. JamesPosts: 4,618 Captain
    stc1993 said:
    We got some bad storm clouds already.  It just now starting to rain I don't like the looks of those clouds, very black.
    What we getting right now is not storm related, they are coming out of the Atlantic.

    I didn't say it was your fault, I said I was blaming you
  • seabiscuitseabiscuit Posts: 1,025 Officer
    111 MPH over Dog Island...Hope this model isn't right.

  • ferris1248ferris1248 Posts: 2,418 Moderator
    edited October 8 #15
    Just talked to LEO in Gulf Cty. Potential for a cat. 4. They are very worried.

    ." why would someone want to be a moderator in the first place?"

    "There is no compensation for that task other than the satisfaction one might get from being an ***."

    mindyabizness

    "That which is hateful to you, do not do to your fellow. That is the whole of the law. The rest is commentary."

    Rabbi Hillel (c20 BCE)

  • kgfisherkgfisher Posts: 607 Officer
    This doesn't even look real, y'all down there pack it up and get somewhere safe.

    TUESDAY NIGHT
     Hurricane conditions possible. East winds 30
    knots with gusts to around 55 knots increasing to 46 to
    51 knots with gusts to around 75 knots after midnight. Seas
    25 feet with occasional seas up to 32 feet building to 34 feet
    with occasional seas up to 43 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds.
    Protected waters extremely rough. Showers and thunderstorms likely
    in the evening, then showers and thunderstorms after midnight.
    
    WEDNESDAY
     Hurricane conditions possible. Southeast winds
    65 to 75 knots with gusts to around 105 knots becoming west 53 to
    63 knots with gusts to around 90 knots in the afternoon. Seas
    46 feet with occasional seas up to 59 feet subsiding to 34 feet
    with occasional seas up to 43 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds.
    Protected waters extremely rough. Showers and thunderstorms.
    "The fishermen know that the sea is dangerous and the storm terrible, but they have never found these dangers sufficient reason for remaining ashore"

    - Vincent Van Gogh

    2215GAG3.jpg
  • brotherinlawbrotherinlaw Posts: 2,978 Captain

    Headed to the Hatch in a few and try to get everything done tonight and in the am. Been running like h----- here lately.

    I think the Good Lord is trying to see how tough we really are. LOL

  • stc1993stc1993 Albany, GA Carrabelle, FLPosts: 4,844 Captain
    Ventusky shows it going right across carrabelle ligthouse.  Our old place is about 1\2 mile from there.  Hope everyone will be ok.
  • fsuwxmanfsuwxman Posts: 1,265 Officer
    edited October 8 #19
    Ok folks - here’s my take at the moment (7:15 pm 10-8-18). Take it for what you will. I’ll try to update again tomorrow. 

    Intensity - likely 100-110 mph

    Track - likely PCB to St. Marks

    Most of the convection, and highest winds, will be east of the center of circulation. 

    Track is highly dependent on timing of trough digging across the Midwest right now. 

    I want to see the raw G-IV upper air data sampling happening right now and how the 0z global models handle the ingest. If the track and intensity doesn’t shift substantially after the upper air data ingest then I’d say we’re relatively locked in.

    I’ll make my decision to evac Tally Tuesday morning based on the 0z run and subsequent validation/non-validation. 

    A cat 2/3 with >60% direct impact to Tally is a bad situation. A good chunk of residential power likely out for weeks and secondary/tertiary roads impassable for a while. 

    If you have plenty of fuel, water, propane/nat gas, whole home or large generator, and newer construction with no trees that could come through your house you’re in vastly better shape than most. 

    This very well could be the big one along the forgotten coast that us mets (especially those of us that went to FSU) have modeled for years. It stands to significantly rearrange the forgotten coast and do major damage to Tally. As I say - hope is not a strategy. Let’s hope for the best but plan for the worst. 

    As as far as the point, SGI, St. Marks, Cbelle, and other points east and west...expect LARGE storm surge beginning well ahead of the storm. It will stack up on the continental shelf and keep rising as the storm continues north. Add significant wave action on top of that rise. Short  story - get out now if you’re anywhere along the coast and don’t expect to come back to much (if roads are even passable immediately after, or still intact, in some places close to the water). 

    2015 FS Northwest Forum NASCAR Champion
  • GANDERGANDER Posts: 331 Deckhand
    fsuwxman,

    Thanks for taking the time to share your insight during what has to be a professionally crazy-busy time. 

    Sorry to hear the frank assessment (the big one) and it doesn’t sound good for our ground level SGI rental booked for next March. Many are in line to lose so much more than a beloved vacation spot. 

    Prayers for all in this storm’s path the have the wisdom to follow evac orders and get to safer ground ASAP.
  • stc1993stc1993 Albany, GA Carrabelle, FLPosts: 4,844 Captain
    Sounds like it's time to get out at least by mornling.
  • restlessnativerestlessnative Posts: 2,017 Captain
    edited October 9 #22
    Not looking good for you great folks. I just did all I could at our place in Homosassa based on how bad we got it from Hermene. I think we will be alright and I open my doors to good folks on here that need anything if you come south (I live in Tampa and Homosassa).
  • OldgoldandwhiteOldgoldandwhite Posts: 251 Deckhand
    Y’all be safe. Supposed to be in SGI Sunday. Praying this thing falls apart. 
  • GrumpyDavidGrumpyDavid JacksonvillePosts: 44 Greenhorn
    Leave early. As I recall the protocall is to close the ICW bridges when the winds reach 45 mph. 
  • CyclistCyclist Posts: 23,346 AG
    edited October 9 #25
    fsuwxman said:
    Ok folks - here’s my take at the moment (7:15 pm 10-8-18). Take it for what you will. I’ll try to update again tomorrow. 

    Intensity - likely 100-110 mph

    Track - likely PCB to St. Marks

    Most of the convection, and highest winds, will be east of the center of circulation. 

    Track is highly dependent on timing of trough digging across the Midwest right now. 

    I want to see the raw G-IV upper air data sampling happening right now and how the 0z global models handle the ingest. If the track and intensity doesn’t shift substantially after the upper air data ingest then I’d say we’re relatively locked in.

    I’ll make my decision to evac Tally Tuesday morning based on the 0z run and subsequent validation/non-validation. 

    A cat 2/3 with >60% direct impact to Tally is a bad situation. A good chunk of residential power likely out for weeks and secondary/tertiary roads impassable for a while. 

    If you have plenty of fuel, water, propane/nat gas, whole home or large generator, and newer construction with no trees that could come through your house you’re in vastly better shape than most. 

    This very well could be the big one along the forgotten coast that us mets (especially those of us that went to FSU) have modeled for years. It stands to significantly rearrange the forgotten coast and do major damage to Tally. As I say - hope is not a strategy. Let’s hope for the best but plan for the worst. 

    As as far as the point, SGI, St. Marks, Cbelle, and other points east and west...expect LARGE storm surge beginning well ahead of the storm. It will stack up on the continental shelf and keep rising as the storm continues north. Add significant wave action on top of that rise. Short  story - get out now if you’re anywhere along the coast and don’t expect to come back to much (if roads are even passable immediately after, or still intact, in some places close to the water). 

    Do you ever listen to Tropical Tidbits. Levi's blog. He is a student at FSU.

    Great up to date videos explaining why the storms are behaving as they are.



    I hope everyone stays safe!

    133cbf2b243368b1ddb2f591a1988076--beach-posters-florida-travel.jpg
  • fsuwxmanfsuwxman Posts: 1,265 Officer
    I am familiar with tropical tidbits. 


    2015 FS Northwest Forum NASCAR Champion
  • woodsrunnerwoodsrunner Posts: 1,916 Captain
    OK, fsuwxman, time for an update if you will, please! I'm Due north of Tally right on the edge of Tall Timbers Research Sta. What should I expect wind-wise? I'm boarded up and as ready as I can get, but what should I expect? Cat 1,2,3??
  • Nick NikonNick Nikon Posts: 1,933 Captain
    Fingers crossed ... for everyone.

    We're due in Port St. Joe on the 20th ...

    Our trailer's parked about 8 ft. above sea level ...

    But luck, and clear highways, might not be enough ...

    If the roads wash-out at Fort Pickens, we'll have to bail.
  • 4WARD4WARD Cross Creek,FLPosts: 1,000 Officer
    Hate it for you all.
    Anyone heading south, I have plenty of room to drop a boat or park a camper.
    Safe and secure. 20 miles south of Gainesville. All you gotta do is ask.
    "I hate graveyards and old pawn shops
    For they always bring me tears
    I can't forgive the way they rob me
    Of my childhood souvenirs"... John Prine
  • stc1993stc1993 Albany, GA Carrabelle, FLPosts: 4,844 Captain
    It's not looking good for CSB area.  It shows it going right by tallahahasee.
  • JTRJTR Posts: 1,059 Officer
    Well...……..

    That ain't good news.

    Going to take out my favorite fishing town and my house.

    Hope everyone makes it through OK.

    We are about as ready as we are going to be. Don't like sitting around waiting for the storm to hit.
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