is fairly high model consensus on the general track of Michael, but
some important details are yet to be resolved. Michael will be shuttled
north to northeast between a summerlike ridge of high pressure along the
U.S. East Coast and a seasonally strong trough across the West. The
flow between the two features is pulling large amount of moisture across
the Great Plains, where a corridor of heavy rain will drop 5” – 10”
from Texas to Michigan early this week (a rainfall event that may be
just as heavy and impactful as the rains from Michael).
eastern ridge will be gradually weakening into midweek as the western
trough moves into the heart of the country. Together, these features
will pull Michael northward, then northeastward. With this steering,
Michael will reach the central Gulf Coast by midweek and then head back
off the Southeast or mid-Atlantic coast by late week; it’s possible that
Michael will drop 1” – 3” of unwanted rain across parts of South and
North Carolina that were inundated by Hurricane Florence last month.
Similar amounts could fall from the mid-Atlantic toward southern New
England, depending on exactly how Michael tracks.
Here’s the diagnosis from several of our top track models:
—The last several runs of the GFS
model (though 12Z Sunday) brought Michael to the western Florida
Panhandle coast on Wednesday, across the central Carolinas on Thursday,
and off the mid-Atlantic coast by Thursday night.
—The experimental FV3-GFS model’s track is similar but a bit further to the northwest.
—Sunday's 0Z and 12Z runs of the European
model agreed on a western FL landfall, but not until Wednesday night or
Thursday morning. The slower Euro solution also takes Michael on a more
southerly inland track that would roll along or near the Carolina coast
late Thursday into Friday and off the Outer Banks by late Friday.
—Sunday’s 0Z and 12Z UKMET
tracks were similar to the Euro’s. The 12Z UKMET and Euro model runs
were concerning, as they showed the potential for Michael to emerge over
water off the coast of South Carolina. Michael thus has the potential
to affect a large portion of the coast of South Carolina and North
Carolina as a strong tropical storm or Catgeory 1 hurricane.
general, the track solutions for the central Gulf Coast are close enough
that they all fall comfortably within the NHC forecast cone, more so
than usual for a prediction three days out. Michael’s greatest landfall
impacts are likely to be along the Florida Panhandle coast, although
residents of the Mississippi and Alabama coasts should remain on guard
for now. Timing is a somewhat bigger uncertainty: Michael could make
landfall as early as Wednesday morning (as predicted by NHC) or as late
as Thursday morning. With this in mind, preparations should be completed
on Monday wherever possible.
Not much time for you guys to prepare but do your best and stay safe.
Good luck to all in harms way.
“Everyone behaves badly--given the chance.”
― Ernest Hemingway
Here is a site that is very interactive. You can bookmark locations on the map to see current and forecasted wind speed/gusts and other things.
We got some bad storm clouds already. It just now starting to rain I don't like the looks of those clouds, very black.
Hurricane conditions possible. East winds 30
knots with gusts to around 55 knots increasing to 46 to
51 knots with gusts to around 75 knots after midnight. Seas
25 feet with occasional seas up to 32 feet building to 34 feet
with occasional seas up to 43 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds.
Protected waters extremely rough. Showers and thunderstorms likely
in the evening, then showers and thunderstorms after midnight.
Hurricane conditions possible. Southeast winds
65 to 75 knots with gusts to around 105 knots becoming west 53 to
63 knots with gusts to around 90 knots in the afternoon. Seas
46 feet with occasional seas up to 59 feet subsiding to 34 feet
with occasional seas up to 43 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds.
Protected waters extremely rough. Showers and thunderstorms.
Headed to the Hatch in a few and try to get everything done tonight and in the am. Been running like h----- here lately.
I think the Good Lord is trying to see how tough we really are. LOL
Ok folks - here’s my take at the moment (7:15 pm 10-8-18). Take it for what you will. I’ll try to update again tomorrow. Intensity - likely 100-110 mphTrack - likely PCB to St. MarksMost of the convection, and highest winds, will be east of the center of circulation. Track is highly dependent on timing of trough digging across the Midwest right now. I want to see the raw G-IV upper air data sampling happening right now and how the 0z global models handle the ingest. If the track and intensity doesn’t shift substantially after the upper air data ingest then I’d say we’re relatively locked in.I’ll make my decision to evac Tally Tuesday morning based on the 0z run and subsequent validation/non-validation. A cat 2/3 with >60% direct impact to Tally is a bad situation. A good chunk of residential power likely out for weeks and secondary/tertiary roads impassable for a while. If you have plenty of fuel, water, propane/nat gas, whole home or large generator, and newer construction with no trees that could come through your house you’re in vastly better shape than most. This very well could be the big one along the forgotten coast that us mets (especially those of us that went to FSU) have modeled for years. It stands to significantly rearrange the forgotten coast and do major damage to Tally. As I say - hope is not a strategy. Let’s hope for the best but plan for the worst. As as far as the point, SGI, St. Marks, Cbelle, and other points east and west...expect LARGE storm surge beginning well ahead of the storm. It will stack up on the continental shelf and keep rising as the storm continues north. Add significant wave action on top of that rise. Short story - get out now if you’re anywhere along the coast and don’t expect to come back to much (if roads are even passable immediately after, or still intact, in some places close to the water).