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JACKSONVILLE 34 82 13(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
JACKSONVILLE 50 20 40(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
JACKSONVILLE 64 5 20(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT4+shtml/070853.shtml
WTNT44 KNHC 070857
TCDAT4
HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016
The satellite appearance of Matthew has become rather disheveled
looking in infrared satellite imagery since the previous advisory.
Land-based Doppler radar data indicate that Matthew has been going
through an eyewall replacement cycle for the past 12 hours or so,
but the inner eyewall has yet to dissipate within the 35-40 nmi wide
outer eyewall. Both Doppler velocity data and recon SFMR surface
winds and flight-level winds indicate that hurricane-force winds are
and have been occuring within the outer eyewall just 5-10 nmi east
of the Florida coastline. Although the central pressure has
remained steady between 938-940 mb, the intensity has been lowered
to 105 kt based on 700-mb flight-level winds of 118 kt and several
patches of Doppler velocities of 120-122 kt between 5000-7500 feet.
The initial motion estimate is 330/12 kt. For the next 48 hours,
Matthew is expected to move northward and then northeastward around
the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. After that
time, a weakening Matthew is expected to turn slowly southeastward
and then southward as the cyclone gets cut off from the influence of
the mid-latitude westerlies and becomes embedded within the
aforementioned large-scale high pressure ridge. The latest model
guidance has shifted to the left of the previous forecast track
after 36 hours, and the official forecast has been nudged in that
direction, but remains well to the right of the model consensus and
close to the GFS-ECMWF consensus.
Matthew is expected to slowly weaken some more during the next 12
hours or so while the cyclone completes the eyewall replacement
cycle. By 24 hours and beyond, more significant weakening is
expected due to the combination of strong southwesterly vertical
shear increasing to more than 30 kt and entrainment of very dry
mid-level air with humidity values less than 20 percent. The new
intensity forecast closely follows the consensus model IVCN.
I was thinking about you late yesterday as this storm looked like it was continuing to head more North. I think you made the smart move.
I guess the people in Haiti and the Bahamas didn't pray hard enough?
Looks like south Florida was very lucky with Mathew as he stayed just enough offshore to prevent a major disaster. Hopefully the rest of the US East coast will be spared as well.
Still glad we left town. I just hope everyone doesn't take the next one lightly just because we dodge it this time. Look at photos from Haiti and the Bahamas :-o
Better safe than sorry!!
Don't be a ***** at times like this. Let the guy be happy
Other than that, no damage. Ran out to check some lines at the other side of the development for a guy who left. The roads are a mess and the neighbor three doors down has lost two trees.
"Devastating video from Jacksonville". Sorry I don't know how to embed it - scroll down a bit, the one shot from a highrise condo.
https://twitter.com/wjxt4
Only a couple minutes long
Our lagoon lock has been breached, but the tide is outgoing so if we can get a foot or two out of that we should be fine.
Sorry to say, but much of that area is probably overdue for a flush-out.
Mile after square mile of odorous, mosquito-infested, tannin-stained sludge.
Barrier islands will probably take the worst of it, but the flush will depend on the tide.
Since you feel compelled to try and troll my post, did you notice that there are 3 and only 3 separate, short and concise thoughts conveyed and separated by periods?
Prayer is a powerful thing..........looks like it is inching east a little....... thanks guys.
I didn't realize any one of those 3 separate thoughts would be pounced upon by anyone other than the two quote posters I was replying to.
A couple more thoughts for you.
If I offended you I could not care less.............It is better to be thought a fool than to post nonsense and remove all doubt.:grin
I have never eaten a booger in my entire life. -Jim Harbaugh
Well first, it hasnt left yet.
Secondly, are you saying that Florida did not get sustained winds over land of 74mph plus from this?
It isn't about the eye.
It is out of Florida's waters.
You can get sustained winds over 74 during an afternoon thunderstorm.
Secondly 74 mph winds are not "major hurricane" strength.
Actually it is when talking about "official land falls". Officially Florida has not been hit with a major hurricane since 2005. "Officially" Matthew has not made a US landfall, yet.
Any thing else you'd like to spout off about?
I have never eaten a booger in my entire life. -Jim Harbaugh
The post about sand in Ponce Inlet doesn't seem political...
Corrected! Thanks
Frank,
Although the relevance of this thread has diminished due to Hurricane Matthew's departure, it will not be deleted! There were a few posts that fell short of any relation to the storm and they were moved as previously stated.