99L long range models.....ugh. Need rain, not Cat 4.

The 12Z Euro:

at 120 hours, 99L is over the Central Bahamas and starting to strengthen.

144 Hours out (Sunday) it is gaining strength just north of Andros island in the Bahamas.

168 Hours, Monday, landfall near Fort Lauderdale at hurricane or strong TS strength 995mb, strengthening as it approaches.

Continues around this strength to Northwest of the Ft. Myers area (Exits near Venice Beach) strengthening back in the Gulf. (Tues, Aug 30th)

Wed, Aug 31st, 960mb (close to major or at major) hurricane in the Gulf west of Tampa and south of Panama City Beach.

Final frame Sep. 1st, in the Gulf (950mb) south of Tallahassee moving back toward Florida.

Second landfall @ 942 mb (typical of a cat 4) in the big bend.

Recon will be out there tomorrow to sample the system.



plot20160823-0956.gif

Click this to play the GIF of the tracks.
http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator...=2016&title=99



http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showf...true#Post96502

Recon will be out there tomorrow to sample the system.

Read more: http://forums.floridasportsman.com/s...#ixzz4IAOQGXim
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Replies

  • Rick1-2Rick1-2 HorseshoePosts: 918 Officer
    dam, we don't need more rain, have enough mosquitos, and a cat 4, scary
  • Jim311Jim311 Posts: 4,891 Captain
    The big bend coast is blown out still from the last bout of rain. Guess it's time to fix my generator...
  • Rick1-2Rick1-2 HorseshoePosts: 918 Officer
    yep got mine ready
  • CyclistCyclist Posts: 23,346 AG
    Gville is suffering for rain. I know the coast doesn't need any. The models have changed a bit for the storm, still a factor for Florida by the end of the weekend.

    12Z Euro Run for Today:

    Initial Position good, near where the system currently is.
    Tomorrow Morning: Just east of Turks/Caicos still relatively weak
    Friday Morning: South Central Bahamas, slightly stronger, but still wave like.
    Saturday Morning: Just east of Andros Island, Tropical Storm.

    plot20160824-1422.gif
    133cbf2b243368b1ddb2f591a1988076--beach-posters-florida-travel.jpg
  • lakemanlakeman Posts: 721 Officer
    I can use all the rain, even in biblical proportions. Here on Lake Weir, we, at my house, have only had 1.5 inches of rain since Memorial day,
    The lake is approaching a record low.
  • CyclistCyclist Posts: 23,346 AG
    Big Bend around Thursdayish to Friday. TS, maybe weak Hurricane.

    stormplotthumb_9.gif
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  • Salty Dawg44Salty Dawg44 Homosassa, FLPosts: 919 Officer
    Latest update has it coming ashore HERE on Thursday morning with 65mph winds.





    Time to activate my warning system.

    MY WORST FEAR......THAT WHEN I DIE MY WIFE WILL SELL ALL MY BOATS & FISHING GEAR FOR WHAT I TOLD HER I PAID FOR IT.......

    I may not always agree with what you say,
    but I will always respect your right to be wrong!
  • DOCKSIDEDOCKSIDE Posts: 1,770 Captain
    ****. Guess I'll pull boats this afternoon...
    somewhere south of disorder and on earth... mostly .
    ..............................................................................
    IBEW LU 433
  • surfmansurfman WC FLPosts: 5,085 Admiral
    :mad
    Tight Lines, Steve
    My posts are my opinion only.
  • virgini5virgini5 Posts: 13 Greenhorn
    Latest update has it coming ashore HERE on Thursday morning with 65mph winds.





    Time to activate my warning system.

    That's the best warning system I've seen.
  • mburke001 aka TripleBmburke001 aka TripleB Posts: 1,210 Officer
    virgini5 wrote: »
    That's the best warning system I've seen.

    Run to the nearest bar? :wink
  • majorgatormajorgator Posts: 369 Deckhand
    And of course we're planning on being in Homosassa for Labor Day weekend. Looks like we may still be OK as long as the storm doesn't knock out power/water or create other issues.
  • tunlthymetunlthyme Posts: 66 Deckhand
    Me too (Crystal River); was supposed to set my trailer up Thursday for the month. That's gonna be put off a few days. Bad timing for holiday plans; but, wish those well at the coast Thursday. I'm sure they will see some high water; hopefully the wind won't be too bad.
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