You know, the economy.

WaterEngineerWaterEngineer Posts: 24,415 AG
Yep, the economy continues to be great......really great.

Either BHO continues to drive the country in the bottom of the ditch or nothing will happen because it is an election year. You decide. However, if you choose the election year scenario that doesn't explain 2017.

Text from AP:

Business economists are more pessimistic, predicting weaker growth in corporate profit and the economy than they were late last year, a survey found.

The median estimate from economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said business profits would rise 2 percent in 2016, down from the 5 percent growth forecast in December.

The survey also found that most economists have lowered their outlooks for economic growth in 2016, and now expect that the U.S. will grow 2.2 percent this year, on average. That's down from a December prediction of 2.6 percent growth. The survey also found that 79 percent of economists lowered their growth outlook for 2017.

Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/news/business/article68576352.html#storylink=cpy
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Replies

  • mikehelsmikehels Posts: 2,981 Officer
    What this thread needs is a graph...:)
  • nuevowavonuevowavo Posts: 6,611 Admin
    "Sixty-seven percent of the economists surveyed expect that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates two times this year."

    Check back with me in December.
    Federales, bring my baby back to me!
  • WaterEngineerWaterEngineer Posts: 24,415 AG
    mikehels wrote: »
    What this thread needs is a graph...:)

    Don't worry. ricky, the construction trailer sitting arm chair economist will be along in a moment with a graph using outdated data.
    nuevowavo wrote: »
    "Sixty-seven percent of the economists surveyed expect that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates two times this year."

    Check back with me in December.

    So you, too, believe we are is a bubble. Thank you. I get it.
  • nuevowavonuevowavo Posts: 6,611 Admin
    So you, too, believe we are is a bubble. Thank you. I get it.

    No, I don't. What makes you think that? The Fed won't raise rates further until there's a clear sign of inflation danger, and increased wage growth.
    What sort of bubble are we is?
    Federales, bring my baby back to me!
  • WaterEngineerWaterEngineer Posts: 24,415 AG
    nuevowavo wrote: »
    No, I don't. What makes you think that? The Fed won't raise rates further until there's a clear sign of inflation danger, and increased wage growth.
    What sort of bubble are we is?

    Or.......the FED is creating the bubble keeping the rate too low. Rates should have gone up by now to take some of the bubbliness out of the market.

    What is going to happen when rates go negative like thy did in Japan this week?
  • nuevowavonuevowavo Posts: 6,611 Admin
    What bubble? The stock market? Real estate? Corporate profits?
    We've already discussed negative interest rates on another thread. What makes you think that will happen here?
    Federales, bring my baby back to me!
  • WaterEngineerWaterEngineer Posts: 24,415 AG
    Stock market, as itself has demonstrated. You can't deny that.

    So you think negative rates can't happen here?
  • rickcrickc Posts: 9,172 Admiral
    Or.......the FED is creating the bubble keeping the rate too low. Rates should have gone up by now to take some of the bubbliness out of the market.

    What is going to happen when rates go negative like thy did in Japan this week?

    the economy will improve when we have a democrat in the white house and a democrat majority in congress. Until then we will see tepid growth. All you have to do is look at the economic history of the two parties.

    The Democrat-Republican ‘Gap’

    The paper looks at macroeconomic performance based on various economic outcomes and concludes, “The answer, while hardly a secret, is not nearly as widely known as it should be. The U.S. economy performs much better when a Democrat is president than when a Republican is.”

    The analysis considered a 64-year period beginning with President Harry Truman and ending with President Barack Obama. In all, that takes in the complete presidencies of seven complete Democratic terms and nine Republican terms. Here are the findings on several economic indicators, and, in some cases, how they match up with Clinton’s claims:

    Gross Domestic Product

    The analysis found that under Democratic presidents the gross domestic product rose at an average rate of 4.33 percent, compared with a rate of 2.54 percent under Republicans. That translates to a 1.79 percentage point gap in favor of the economy under Democrats. That means that the U.S. economy grew by an average of 18.5 percent during the typical four-year presidency of a Democrat versus a 10.6 percent gain under a Republican.

    Unemployment


    The average unemployment rate was lower under Democrats, 5.64 percent, compared with 6.01 percent under Republican presidents, though the authors called that difference “small and not statistically significant.”

    However, they said, there is “a very large and statistically significant difference in the change in the unemployment rate, computed as the average unemployment rate in the final year of the term minus the average value in the final year of the previous term. During Democratic presidential terms, the unemployment rate fell by 0.8 percentage points, on average, while it rose by 1.1 percentage points, on average, during Republican terms — yielding a large D-R gap of -1.9 percentage points.”

    Income

    Real wages, compensation per hour in the nonfarm business sector, increased slightly faster under Democratic presidents, they found. But the gap was not statistically significant, the authors said, despite Clinton’s claim that “income is higher” when a Democrat is in the White House.

    Stock market

    Annualized stock market returns for firms in the S&P 500 Index were 5.65 percentage points higher under Democratic presidents (the returns under Democratic presidents increased 8.35 percent compared with 2.7 percent under Republican presidents).

    “Though business votes Republican,” the authors wrote, “it prospers more under Democrats.”

    However, the report states, “given the extreme volatility of stock prices, even differences that large are statistically significant at only the 15 percent level.” That tempers Clinton’s claim that under Democratic presidents “even the stock market is higher.”
  • cprcpr Posts: 9,309 Admiral
    nuevowavo wrote: »
    No, I don't. What makes you think that? The Fed won't raise rates further until there's a clear sign of inflation danger, and increased wage growth.
    What sort of bubble are we is?

    Serious question. Will a $15 minimum wage cause any inflation?
    "The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function." F. Scott Fitzgerald

    "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." Niels Bohr
  • rickcrickc Posts: 9,172 Admiral
    cpr wrote: »
    Serious question. Will a $15 minimum wage cause any inflation?

    who cares about the minimum wage. It is just a redirect by the right to focus the attention away from the real problem. Same way when the right uses the poor and welfare for the same reason.

    The real problem is the stagnant wages of the middle class. Why won't the right address this one?
  • WaterEngineerWaterEngineer Posts: 24,415 AG
    Why won't the middle class do what they need to do so their wages aren't "stagnant?"
  • gregglgreggl Posts: 21,594 Officer
    Why won't the middle class do what they need to do so their wages aren't "stagnant?"

    no unions. the middle class won't mobilize until they feel the wage compression from below.
  • rickcrickc Posts: 9,172 Admiral
    Why won't the middle class do what they need to do so their wages aren't "stagnant?"

    Capital has the upper hand now with our bought and.paid for government

    The middle is.coming Alive. Trump is an example
  • cprcpr Posts: 9,309 Admiral
    greggl wrote: »
    no unions. the middle class won't mobilize until they feel the wage compression from below.

    Middle class have seen union abuses and for most, the implied but not promised wage increase is negated by having to pay union dues.


    BTW, my minimum wage question wasn't a redirect. It was a question to nuvo who seems to be knowledgeable about economic issues.
    "The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function." F. Scott Fitzgerald

    "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." Niels Bohr
  • gregglgreggl Posts: 21,594 Officer
    Wage increases are won by valuable labor saying "No".

    unions would be best, but access to accurate prevailing wage information does help. +1 for the Internet.
  • rickcrickc Posts: 9,172 Admiral
    Only chance labor has negotiating with capital is to organize

    Now capital owns the government and makesee the rules
  • gregglgreggl Posts: 21,594 Officer
    rickc wrote: »
    Only chance labor has negotiating with capital is to organize

    call it something different, make it app based and it could happen.
  • mikehelsmikehels Posts: 2,981 Officer
    rickc wrote: »
    who cares about the minimum wage. It is just a redirect by the right to focus the attention away from the real problem. Same way when the right uses the poor and welfare for the same reason.

    The real problem is the stagnant wages of the middle class. Why won't the right address this one?

    Rick- the same goes for the democrats. They are pushing this minimum wage fairy tale as a cure for poverty. The right responds that it won't help anything. The left, demonizes the right for not raising. Meanwhile nothing is done that could help.
  • gregglgreggl Posts: 21,594 Officer
    mikehels wrote: »
    Meanwhile nothing is done that could help.

    Its meant to **** off those making > $15.00
  • FinfinderFinfinder Posts: 9,864 Admiral
    cpr wrote: »
    BTW, my minimum wage question wasn't a redirect. It was a question to nuvo who seems to be knowledgeable about economic issues.

    that's got to sting one member :rotflmao
  • nuevowavonuevowavo Posts: 6,611 Admin
    cpr wrote: »
    Serious question. Will a $15 minimum wage cause any inflation?

    Hard to tell. Businesses with small profit cushions might have to raise prices, but if their competition can absorb the wage increase they won't have to, and consumers will buy from the cheaper source. Corporate profits are very high compared to GDP right now, so larger businesses can handle the higher wages.
    The inflation-adjusted minimum wage more than doubled from 1948-1968, but inflation was fairly stable during that time. The inflation-adjusted minimum wage peaked around 1968.

    46680522.cached.jpg
    Federales, bring my baby back to me!
  • cprcpr Posts: 9,309 Admiral
    nuevowavo wrote: »
    Hard to tell. Businesses with small profit cushions might have to raise prices, but if their competition can absorb the wage increase they won't have to, and consumers will buy from the cheaper source. Corporate profits are very high compared to GDP right now, so larger businesses can handle the higher wages.
    The inflation-adjusted minimum wage more than doubled from 1948-1968, but inflation was fairly stable during that time. The inflation-adjusted minimum wage peaked around 1968.

    46680522.cached.jpg

    Thanks.

    The way I see it is if MW goes to $15, unskilled, uncredentialed workers who are now fairly happy at $15 get upset a bagger or meat flipper is making what they are making doing heavy labor. Then then demand higher wages and now they $20-25/hr. They are making the same or close to teachers, cops and nursing school grads. Now the profesionals see an inequity and want more to go along with their education and licenses. In a short time $15/hr is nothing because as wages go up so does the cost of everything.
    "The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function." F. Scott Fitzgerald

    "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." Niels Bohr
  • JBondJBond Posts: 5,039 Officer
    nuevowavo wrote: »
    "Sixty-seven percent of the economists surveyed expect that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates two times this year."

    Check back with me in December.

    67% are lost puppies. It's not going to happen.
    When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it.

    - Frederic Bastiat
  • JBondJBond Posts: 5,039 Officer
    greggl wrote: »
    Wage increases are won by valuable labor saying "No".

    unions would be best, but access to accurate prevailing wage information does help. +1 for the Internet.

    And then the taxpayers are left bailing out companies that sign unsustainable union contracts. I'll never buy GM. Greedy lazy company.
    When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it.

    - Frederic Bastiat
  • gregglgreggl Posts: 21,594 Officer
    cpr wrote: »
    In a short time $15/hr is nothing because as wages go up so does the cost of everything.

    from china?
  • WaterEngineerWaterEngineer Posts: 24,415 AG
    greggl wrote: »
    from china?

    Yes, even China.
  • Baits OutBaits Out Posts: 12,331 AG
    Old saying:

    If all the economists were laid end to end they would never reach a conclusion.

    A southeast Florida laid back beach bum and volunteer bikini assessor who lives on island time. 
  • gregglgreggl Posts: 21,594 Officer
    Yes, even China.

    through what mechanism?
  • gettinwetgettinwet Posts: 1,366 Officer
    Did someone mention charts?
    There are only so many casts in life, so shut up and fish!!
  • JAPJAP Posts: 3,373 Captain
    greggl wrote: »
    from china?

    You've gotta be a little more sophisticated than this. The stuff from China doesn't unload itself, drive itself or restock itself on shelves in the States. That's no less than three layers of inflated wage labor before you own it.
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