Predicting UF's season w/ Win shares (Teaser: 7-5)

ZimmerNole

Remember when I did this? Well finally, AlligatorArmy did it also! They're predicting 6-7 wins and BTW that's one of the best UF sites on the interwebs.

http://www.alligatorarmy.com/2014/7/29/5944975/florida-gators-football-2014-win-shares

We're back yet again with our annual win shares here at Alligator Army, despite being more wrong than right the past couple of years. Way back in 2012, we were all under on our predictions by quite a few games and in 2013, well, the exact opposite occurred. What does this season hold? We'll begin to find out in about a month, but for now we can still have some fun.

In fairness though, nobody here or anywhere else for that matter could have predicted the struggles the Florida Gators were going to face in the 2013 season. So many injuries, including losing the heart and soul of the offense (Jeff Driskel) and defense (Dominique Easley) early on set the tone and the Gators were never really able to recover. And that isn't even really taking into account the fact that the Gators lost many back-ups and reserves to injuries and ended the season starting a quarterback who wouldn't have even sniffed a roster spot five years ago and a defense that could only rely on the secondary for any sort of good consistency.

Sub-par offensive line play, a disappointing pass rush, horrible tackling and poor skill position play that were all magnified by the aforementioned injuries sent the Gators on a path to a season that ended up being the worst season that many of us have ever seen.

But 2014 is a chance to begin anew.

As always though, the Gators' schedule is extremely difficult. After a relatively easy three homes games to begin the season, the Gators will head on the road for two straight difficult road games at Alabama and Tennessee. They are then back home for two tough home games before their annual tilt in Jacksonville with the Georgia Bulldogs. After that, games against Vanderbilt on the road and South Carolina at home should clear out the SEC East race before the usual match-up with an FCS team. In the final game of the season, it's all about the Florida State Seminoles led by Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Jamies Winston.

So without further ado, here are my 2014 win shares:

Idaho 0.95

Eastern Michigan 0.90

Kentucky 0.80

Alabama 0.15

Tennessee 0.75

LSU 0.25

Missouri 0.50

Georgia 0.50

Vanderbilt 0.65

South Carolina 0.35

Eastern Kentucky 1.00

Florida State 0.15

TOTAL 6.95

So as you can see, I'm projecting the Gators to win six games, with seven wins very likely. That seems to be on par with other analysts around the country who all seem to have the Gators around seven wins as well.

With projected victories against Idaho, Eastern Michigan, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Eastern Kentucky, those six wins will be enough for the Gators to reach the postseason this year after missing out on it last year. Projected losses to Alabama, LSU, South Carolina and Florida State bring the record to 6-4 with toss-up games against Missouri and Georgia to decide the overall record.

My current win shares think the Gators will lose both of those toss-up games, but winning one of them is extremely more likely than losing both (and winning both, for that matter). So with rounding up, which helps out that whole peace of mind thing, I've got 7-5.

What do you have?

I did this awhile back, could easily be 6-6 with 9-3 as a ceiling if y'all win a few big swing games (LSU at home, UGA in Jax and USC at home) I'd lover the % for FSU though :grin


And for a quick fall camp/recruitng update (Larry!) here ya go
http://www.alligatorarmy.com/2014/7/30/5947893/florida-gators-news-notes-recruiting-kalif-jackson-camp-battles

JaxNole

ZimmerNole wrote: »

Remember when I did this? Well finally, AlligatorArmy did it also! They're predicting 6-7 wins and BTW that's one of the best UF sites on the interwebs.

http://www.alligatorarmy.com/2014/7/29/5944975/florida-gators-football-2014-win-shares




Idaho 0.95

Eastern Michigan 0.90

Kentucky 0.80

Alabama 0.15

Tennessee 0.75

LSU 0.25

Missouri 0.50

Georgia 0.50

Vanderbilt 0.65

South Carolina 0.35

Eastern Kentucky 1.00

Florida State 0.15

TOTAL 6.95




I did this awhile back, could easily be 6-6 with 9-3 as a ceiling if y'all win a few big swing games (LSU at home, UGA in Jax and USC at home) I'd lover the % for FSU though :grin


And for a quick fall camp/recruitng update (Larry!) here ya go
http://www.alligatorarmy.com/2014/7/30/5947893/florida-gators-news-notes-recruiting-kalif-jackson-camp-battles

Ouch.

Cane Pole

11-3

Binder

They're not playing USC. Just sayin'

They will win 7-8 games this year...9 won't happen.

Cane Pole

10-2 reg season
0-1 SEC final vs. Bama
1-0 bowl game vs. Ohio St.

ZimmerNole

Cane Pole wrote: »

11-3

Lol @ Eric

Please pass some of that down here? Sheesh.

Binder wrote: »

They're not playing USC. Just sayin'

They will win 7-8 games this year...9 won't happen.

USCe is that better? They play the University of South Carolina

The wheels will come off eventually for UF.

Cane Pole wrote: »

10-2 reg season
0-1 SEC final vs. Bama
1-0 bowl game vs. Ohio St.

:Spittingcoffee

You really think you're going to the SEC champ game? You'd have to beat UGA for that to happen, which I honestly just don't see happening.

You just want to play OSu b/c of Urbie.

Binder

Silly me...you were talking about the cocks. :BUNNY

fins4me

6 wins. Maybe.






























FL will have a new coach early in 2015.

2amigo

1 and 12 with the victory being an upset over FSU.

ZimmerNole

Binder wrote: »

Silly me...you were talking about the cocks. :BUNNY

It happens :wink

fins4me wrote: »

6 wins. Maybe.

FL will have a new coach early in 2015.

I think they can pull of 7?

I hope not! Keep Muschamp!!!

FYI: saw an article written by our best FSU blogger about Tennessee being VERY VERY good in 2015 (with serious concerns about losing nearly everyone on the OL and DL though)

2amigo wrote: »

1 and 12 with the victory being an upset over FSU.

That would actually be hilarious.

Would you prefer 1-12 and win vs FSU to 4 and 8? I know the answer :grin

fins4me

ZimmerNole wrote: »

It happens :wink



I think they can pull of 7?

I hope not! Keep Muschamp!!!

FYI: saw an article written by our best FSU blogger about Tennessee being VERY VERY good in 2015 (with serious concerns about losing nearly everyone on the OL and DL line.

I think the folks predicting a return to better things for the VOLS in 2015 are on the mark. When you look at the last 2 recruiting classes along with what we already have accomplished for 2015's class it is looking good. Butch has IMPRESSED everyone associated with the program The folks who I know in the department seem to agree on 2015. That said as mentioned we lost our entire OL and DLs to graduation or the NFL. The development of those squads will be the key to whatever we can put together this year.

2amigo

Actually 6-6 is about right with 2 games going either way. Just can't trust Muschamp yet. If they go 6-6, he has got to go. If its 7-5 and the losses were close, maybe he stays.

BayGator

Fins I am scratching off Knoxville this year off my bucket list of SEC games.

2amigo

Cane Pole wrote: »

11-3

Can we delete this one. It's fantasy world

BayGator

UF will sucketh quite hard again this year. No doubt about it.

frank

i predict a win on nov 29th

then in tally:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIom8EYNHaA

frank

Florida will go from four wins to 10 wins in just one season. Considering the Gators have a very tough schedule, that is saying a lot. They will take on Alabama, LSU, Missouri, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida State and others. Florida actually brings back its QB, though, which will go a long ways all season long.

http://www.rantsports.com/ncaa-football/2014/07/30/5-bold-predictions-for-florida-football-in-2014/#slide5

Flash

8-5 with a 9-4 possibly big upset.

fins4me

Florida has top 10 talent with poor (very poor) coaching.

ZimmerNole

BayGator wrote: »

Fins I am scratching off Knoxville this year off my bucket list of SEC games.

Go on a boat!

The VOL navy is something to be seen!

fins4me

BayGator wrote: »

Fins I am scratching off Knoxville this year off my bucket list of SEC games.

I hope you enjoy the trip. Make sure you are outside of the stadium before the game for the VOL walk.

fins4me

ZimmerNole wrote: »

Go on a boat!

The VOL navy is something to be seen!

Yes it is.

ZimmerNole

fins4me wrote: »

I hope you enjoy the trip. Make sure you are outside of the stadium before the game for the VOL walk.

This to! No joke though, you gotta take a ride down to the river and at least join in the revelry! Or find someone you know in the area with a boat and enjoy the party it's a fantastic time and it's AUTHENTIC to the Vols. They're darn proud of it too, a sea of orange, white and smokey grey on the water!

Cane Pole

fins4me wrote: »

Florida has top 10 talent...

Hence 11-3

fins4me

Cane Pole wrote: »

Hence 11-3

and poor (very poor) coaching.

Hence 6 wins and a new coach for 2015.

Cane Pole

All it mostly takes is a good OC.

Hence 11-3

Dirty_South_BT

It is truly comical to see how pompous FSU fans have become.

Longhaul

Cut them some slack, they sucked for quite awhile and lost six in a row to UF. They too will fall off again like most programs do in cycles.

Dirty_South_BT wrote: »

It is truly comical to see how pompous FSU fans have become.

JaxNole

Dirty_South_BT wrote: »

It is truly comical to see how pompous FSU fans have become.

But not near as comical as the delusional Go Gata fans have suddenly become after your gloriously horrible season last year.

2amigo

JaxNole wrote: »

But not near as comical as the delusional Go Gata fans have suddenly become after your gloriously horrible season last year.

Jax, you wanna go 100 dollar gift card on Gata taking the Nole? Got this bet with Resin and I'm not really a gambler but you gotta catch me now because I'm drinking. Tomorrow I'm sure I will change my mind or regret this offer if you take it. :beer:drink

Spineyman

This whole thread is comical. There is not a program in college today that could have survived the injury bug that hit us last season. Yes we stunk and hopefully we took a few steps in the right direction to fix that problem. But let me tell you the schedule that FSU plays and the schedule that Florida plays are far and a way different.