Trying to Figure Out Weather Patters...

sgrosenb

I was on Keewaydin yesterday morning at 6:30am (6/22/2014) and it was really rough. Usually when I go to Keewaydin it's nice and calm, especially early in the morning. According to the NOAA the seas were 2 feet or less, the wind was 8-10 knots out of the west, and bay & inland waters a light chop. Just curious how I would have known, given that information, that the beach would be really rough? What conditions do I need to look for if I want to hit it when the beach is like glass? Is it the western vs. eastern winds? Do the tides, moon, etc play into it? Just looking for some pointers. Thanks!

CaptHouse

The tide was inbound at 6:30am yesterday and coming in quickly AND you had the wind blowing in from the West. That probably played a role in the chop. Also the winds picked up more than what was reported...Keewaydin is tough to predict because it is a main artery for a lot of water coming out of Rookery Bay and it saddles up next to another main artery (the Marco River).

snookaffinity

West, south and south west winds is the #1 indicators IMO. Easterly winds usually indicates smoother surface.

lemaymiami

Wind direction and tide direction are the big things I try to remember when "guessing" what actual conditions will be when I'm doing my planning (if I bother...). Put simply if the tide and the wind are opposed you'll get a chop - how much will directly relate to wind speed and time of tide. Remember as well that tide strength varies all month long (strongest, highest and lowest tides around full moon and new moon -weakest tides around the quarter moons).

Of course the weather service always covers its soft parts by noting that "seas will be higher in the vicinity of "occasional thunderstorms". If I had that pretty little weather girl (pick your favorite news channel...) on my skiff for a day or two.... I'd be spending some time pointing at the sky and saying SEE... but that's just me.